ECB Preview: Dreaming of more data – Nordea

Source Fxstreet

Not much is expected from the data-dependent ECB at the July meeting. Another rate cut looks very unlikely, and the magnitude of data before the September meeting makes giving firm signals about the September meeting somewhat controversial, Nordea’s Chief Analyst Jan von Gerich notes.

A cut in September is highly likely

“When the ECB cut rates at the June meeting, the signals about future steps were almost totally absent. Only a few members have taken a stronger stance on the schedule of further moves. However, the vast majority of Governing Council members have been vaguer in their comments, in line with the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach.”

“Given the absence of signals that the recent data have been largely in line with expectations and the ECB’s seeming willingness to remove restrictiveness only gradually, another cut at the July meeting would be a major surprise, and it would also be a surprise, if the ECB gave any firmer guidance at the July meeting.”

“Financial markets are currently pricing in around 20bp worth of cuts for the September meeting, pointing to a baseline where the next cut will take place at that meeting. Virtually nothing is being priced in for the July meeting. Our baseline remains a cut in September. While we do not expect any major market moves following the July meeting, dovish comments could push also EUR rate expectations lower.”

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Bitcoin volatility drops to third-lowest level since 2012 amid rise in BTC treasury companiesBitcoin (BTC) trades above $108,000 on Tuesday following a steady decline in its volatility in the first half of the year, marking the third-lowest H1 volatility since 2012.
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 02: 11
Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $108,000 on Tuesday following a steady decline in its volatility in the first half of the year, marking the third-lowest H1 volatility since 2012.
placeholder
AUD/NZD inches higher to near 1.0900 as RBNZ maintains Official Cash Rate at 3.25%AUD/NZD holds ground after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to stand pat on the policy rate after six consecutive cuts, trading around 1.0890 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 03: 03
AUD/NZD holds ground after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to stand pat on the policy rate after six consecutive cuts, trading around 1.0890 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
placeholder
Ethereum Price Turns Positive — More Upside Likely if Momentum HoldsETH is now consolidating gains and might aim for a fresh move above $2,620.
Author  NewsBTC
Yesterday 03: 26
ETH is now consolidating gains and might aim for a fresh move above $2,620.
placeholder
Jeff Bezos sold nearly 3 million Amazon shares for $665.8 million in early JulyJeff Bezos has sold nearly three million shares of Amazon in the first two days of July, offloading a total of $665.8 million.
Author  Cryptopolitan
Yesterday 03: 43
Jeff Bezos has sold nearly three million shares of Amazon in the first two days of July, offloading a total of $665.8 million.
placeholder
Gold price slides further below $3,300, over one-week low amid a firmer USDGold price (XAU/USD) trades with a negative bias below the $3,300 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday and drops to a one-and-a-half-week low in the last week.
Author  FXStreet
22 hours ago
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with a negative bias below the $3,300 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday and drops to a one-and-a-half-week low in the last week.
goTop
quote