Mitrade Insights is dedicated to providing investors with rich, timely and most valuable financial information to help investors grasp the market situation and find timely trading opportunities.

2021

Best News & Analysis Provider

FxDailyInfo

2022

Best Forex Educational Resources Global

International Business Magazine

Insights

News

Economic Indicator

High bar for RBA to hike in August – TD Securities

Source Fxstreet

Analysts at TD Securities assess the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy decisions.

AUD/USD to be pinned back below 0.6600

"The RBA left the target cash rate on hold at 4.35% as was widely expected, but the Statement and Press Conference fell short of the hawkish tilt anticipated by us and the market. The Bank's CPI forecasts for this year were lifted appreciably, setting a high bar for the Bank to hike by its August meeting. The Bank hasn't ruled out hiking, but given longer-term trimmed mean inflation forecasts were left unchanged, the implication is the RBA expects to keep the cash rate on hold for even longer. The forecasts imply the absolute earliest the RBA cuts would be Aug'25, if not later."

"Today's decision could see some profit-taking from AUD bulls on the crosses given the stretched run-up in AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD. Given RBA's lack of desire for hawkish action, we expect AUD/USD to be pinned back below the 0.66 handle, trading towards 0.64 by end June. We believe more USD strength lies ahead as the FX market is increasingly focused on inflation trends."

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recommended Articles

October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changed Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.

Author Irene Q.

Sep 23, Wed

Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.

Gold holds steady below $4,150 amid elevated US yields Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a flat note near $4,140 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Pressure from a stronger US Dollar (USD) and elevated US Treasury yields was offset by reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this month.

Author FXStreet

Yesterday 01: 14

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a flat note near $4,140 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Pressure from a stronger US Dollar (USD) and elevated US Treasury yields was offset by reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this month.

Japanese Yen drifts lower as sustained USD buying offsets intervention fears The USD/JPY pair attracts some buyers following the previous day's two-day price moves, trading above the 158.00 mark during the early part of the European session on Tuesday.

Author FXStreet

19 hours ago

The USD/JPY pair attracts some buyers following the previous day's two-day price moves, trading above the 158.00 mark during the early part of the European session on Tuesday.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Struggles to return to 0.7000 amid firm US Dollar The Australian Dollar (AUD) gives back its early gains after rising to near 0.6975 and turns marginally lower at around 0.6964 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday.

Author FXStreet

18 hours ago

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gives back its early gains after rising to near 0.6975 and turns marginally lower at around 0.6964 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday.

WTI rises to near $89.50 as Middle East supply threats offset Persian Gulf recovery West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $89.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Crude oil climbed as persistent risks to Middle East energy flows overshadowed signs of rising supply from the region.

Author FXStreet

2 hours ago

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $89.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Crude oil climbed as persistent risks to Middle East energy flows overshadowed signs of rising supply from the region.

Popular Symbols