Japan: Takaichi's historic election win – UOB

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi achieved a historic victory in Japan's general election on February 8, 2026, securing a two-thirds supermajority in the Lower House. This win, driven by Takaichi's popularity, allows the LDP to push forward its fiscal and foreign policy agenda. UOB's Senior Economist Alvin Liew expects the Bank of Japan to maintain a policy pause before a potential rate hike later in 2026, reflecting the government's strong mandate.

Takaichi's victory reshapes Japan's political landscape

"In a historic outcome, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) under the newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a two-thirds supermajority (316 of 465 seats) in the Lower House — Japan’s biggest post-war single-party victory — greatly exceeding market expectations."

"The win, driven largely by Takaichi’s personal popularity, came at the expense of the newly formed Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA)."

"For now, we still expect BOJ to enter a period of pause before the subsequent hike to 1.00% in 3Q 2026, which we believe will be the terminal rate."

"Given the strong majority achieved in this election, we think Takaichi will be able to gain Budget approval easily, despite questions remaining on financing her tax cuts and spending proposals."

"While we do not expect PM Takaichi to turn proactive suddenly on the central bank, we also do not expect BOJ Governor Ueda to retch up the pace of its rate tightening, especially now with a strong victory and mandate for PM Takaichi."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)