SNB preview: High bar to a cut, hold at 0% – NOMURA

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to maintain its policy rate at 0% despite weak inflation and GDP growth, citing high barriers to negative rates. Following limited interventions in 2024, the SNB remains willing to use FX purchases to manage disinflation while forecasting steady growth into 2026, NOMURA's Research Analysts report.

On hold at 0.00% despite low inflation and falling GDP

"We expect the SNB to leave its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% at its 11 December meeting."

"The latest inflation and GDP growth data were both weak. However, we expect the SNB to forecast inflation to rise again and continued GDP growth in 2026, so a rate cut will likely not be required, particularly as the bar to a negative policy rate is high."

"The SNB purchased CHF5.1bn of FX in Q2 following limited interventions in 2024, suggesting it remains willing to use this policy tool to curb disinflation."