China to ease further in H2 2024 to stimulate economic growth – Standard Chartered
Source Fxstreet
Economists at Standard Chartered offer their afterthoughts on China’s quarterly growth numbers released on Tuesday.
Key quotes
“China’s economy grew 5.3% y/y or 6.6% annualized in Q1, beating market consensus by a wide margin.”
“Output gap narrowed to -1.6% of GDP in Q1 from -2.2% in Q4; GDP deflator stayed negative at -1.1% y/y.”
“We think it is still too early to sound the all-clear on China’s economy as it continues to battle a sluggish domestic housing market, weak consumer confidence and disinflationary pressure.“
“Further monetary easing is likely still needed in H2, especially if the US Fed starts cutting rates (which would ease CNY depreciation pressure vs the USD). We continue to forecast a 10bps cut in the medium-term lending (MLF) rate in both Q3 and Q4, and a 25bps reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in Q3.”
“Our 2024 GDP growth forecast remains intact at 4.8%, slightly higher than consensus 4.7%. We see upside risks to our forecast from effective implementation of the government’s “action plan for large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in”, and strengthening external demand.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Gold ends three-week slide at the $4,400 line — eight straight days of ETF inflows vs a 5% 10-year and a 100 dollarSpot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
Spot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
US input costs rose at the fastest pace in four years — the September flash PMI beat is an inflation story, not a growth storyUS September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.
US September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.
Brent edges toward $99 as Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz proposal — why the war-risk premium won't rebuildBrent crude rose 0.92% to $98.51 and WTI gained 1.15% to $93.51 after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But both benchmarks remain about 12% below their early-September highs, because supply never actually stopped. Hormuz flows ran at 33.7 million barrels this week, in line with the prior week, and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restarted on September 22.
Brent crude rose 0.92% to $98.51 and WTI gained 1.15% to $93.51 after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But both benchmarks remain about 12% below their early-September highs, because supply never actually stopped. Hormuz flows ran at 33.7 million barrels this week, in line with the prior week, and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restarted on September 22.
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
