Bank of Japan "Summary of Opinions" from the September meeting

Following are the key takeaways from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) "Summary of Opinions" from the September meeting,

One member said the BoJ should continue raising rates if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts.

One member said there is no change to the view that Japan’s economy will slow temporarily due to U.S. tariffs.

One member argued the BoJ must support the economy by maintaining low interest rates for now.

One member suggested it might be good to consider resuming rate hikes, as more than six months have passed since the last move.

One member warned against raising rates now to avoid surprising markets.

One member said it would not be too late to await more hard data before proceeding with policy normalisation.

One member stressed the importance of assessing the impact of trade policy on the global economy, U.S. monetary policy and FX, as well as domestic prices and wages, when setting policy.

One member said waiting would provide more clarity on the U.S. outlook, but the cost of inflation pressures will gradually rise the longer action is delayed.

One member noted the economy and prices are on track with forecasts, and if no major deviations occur, policy rates should be adjusted at a regular pace.

One member said a wide range of new data will soon be available, including the impact of U.S. tariffs, first-half corporate earnings, and the Tankan survey.

One member said conditions are falling into place to resume rate hikes and adjust Japan’s still-low real interest rates, as overseas headwinds begin to recede.

One member argued rates should be pushed closer to neutral given upside risks to prices.

One member noted Japan’s economy is on a firm footing, with consumption finally picking up.

One member said the impact of U.S. tariffs on the global and U.S. economy may emerge gradually over a long period.

One member warned that if tariff-driven inflation significantly hurts the U.S. economy, Japan will not be immune.

One member said it is important to check the Tankan and corporate surveys to confirm companies are maintaining a proactive business stance.

One member said underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward, but not yet at, the 2% target.

One member cautioned that prolonged food price increases could lift underlying inflation but also hurt consumption.

One member said Japan has already roughly achieved the BoJ’s price target and warned of upside risks as the economy remains prone to second-round effects.

One member said there is big upside risk to inflation due partly from fiscal policy impact,

Market reaction

At the time of writing, USD/JPY is defending bids above 146.50.