EUR consolidated around 1.14 – Scotiabank
Source Fxstreet
The Euro (EUR) is soft and entering Wednesday’s NA session with a modest decline against the US Dollar (USD), having recovered from a short-lived bout of early Asian session weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
PMIs mixed w/better mfg and softer services
"The release of preliminary PMI’s has been mixed, with a better than expected (though still sub-50) Manufacturing print and a disappointing and unexpectedly contractionary (sub-50) Services print for both the eurozone aggregate and German releases."
"These releases were the highlights of the week, leaving markets to focus on central bank headlines out of the IMF meetings in Washington. Tuesday’s comments from President Lagarde focused on downside risks to growth but offered little clarity in terms of her thinking on trade tensions and their impact on inflation."
"The broader trend is still bullish however we can’t help but notice EURUSD’s inability to break from the 1.14 congestion level over the past 8 sessions. We look to near-term support in the mid/ upper-1.12s and note recent resistance above 1.15/1.1550. The RSI’s slow drift lower hints at a loss of momentum and follows the negative divergence that failed to confirm Monday’s highs in spot. Look to near-term consolidation."
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The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
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Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
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Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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