USD: Dollar bull trend situation report – ING

The DXY dollar index is roughly 2% off its recent highs and the question for investors is whether a further 1-2% is required. Driving this correction have been several factors, the largest of which has probably been this week's tariff news, where it looks like the Trump administration has been using tariffs for transactional not ideological purposes (this may change in the second quarter), ING’s FX analyst, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

DXY probably trades in a tightish 107.50-108.00 range

“Important as well has been the drop in 10-year US Treasury yields below 4.50%. A well-received Quarterly Refunding announcement yesterday certainly helped. Our rate strategy colleagues discuss that move here. The move lower in USD/JPY has caught the attention as data and Bank of Japan commentary have built up confidence in this year's BoJ tightening cycle.”

“Determining whether DXY corrects another 1-2% will probably be tomorrow's jobs data. We saw earlier this week from the US JOLTS job opening data that soft figures can hit the dollar. Yet we doubt the dollar correction will last too long. We look for more structural and broader tariffs to come back into play in the second quarter. Our rates team also doubts US Treasury yields will drop much further from here.”

“So while a soft NFP number tomorrow could drag DXY back towards the 106.35/50 area – we would see that area as the bottom of the trading range this first quarter. Today the US calendar is pretty light. Unless jobless claims rise dramatically, DXY probably trades in a tightish 107.50-108.00 range.”