USD/CNH: To trade in a 7.2300/7.2650 range – UOB Group
Source Fxstreet
The US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a 7.2300/7.2650 range. USD must break and remain below the 7.2037 low before further weakness can be expected, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
USD must break below 7.2037 to continue downwards
24-HOUR VIEW: “While we expected USD to break below 7.2600 yesterday, we were of the view that 7.2500 could be out of reach. The subsequent spike in volatility was surprising, as USD nose-dived to 7.2037 and then rebounded to close at 7.2405 (-0.30%). The rebound in oversold conditions suggest USD is unlikely to weaken further. Today, we expect USD to trade in a 7.2300/7.2650 range.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned negative in USD yesterday (25 Jul, spot at 7.2655), indicating that it ‘is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 7.2500, with a lower probability of it reaching 7.2400.’ We did not anticipate the subsequent wild price action, as USD plunged to 7.2037 and then snapped back up. While further USD weakness is not ruled out, it must break and remain below the 7.2037 low before further decline can be expected. The likelihood of USD breaking clearly below the low will be intact provided that 7.2800 (‘strong resistance’ was at 7.2900 yesterday) is not breached.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
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Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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