DXY: FOMC and data – OCBC

US Dollar (USD) strength moderated overnight, following the pullback in UST yields. DXY was last at 98.82 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

2-way trades in the interim

"Focus shifts to FOMC tonight (2am Thursday SGT) – widely expected to maintain hold. Powell’s comments on inflation, labour market outlook will be scrutinized for timing on next cut. Markets still implied around 2 cuts this year."

"On the data front, there are plenty of tier-1 data to watch out for, including conference ADP employment, 2Q GDP (Wednesday); FOMC, core PCE (Thursday); NFP, ISM manufacturing (Friday). Globally, there is BoJ, BoC policy decision and 1 Aug tariff deadline. Additionally, there may also be month-end flows distorting price action."

"Daily momentum is mild bullish but rise in RSI slowed. 2-way trades in the interim. Resistance at 99.60 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low), 100 levels. Support at 98.30 (50 DMA), 97.80 (21 DMA), and 96.40 levels (2025 low)."