DXY looks set to trade in a 100.00-110.00 range – SocGen
Source Fxstreet
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has inched higher as market pricing of Fed easing in 2024 has been downgraded. Economists at Société Générale analyze Greenback’s outlook.
The Fed is unlikely to ease dramatically
The US economy appears to have escaped a recession, and while that won’t stand in the way of monetary policy easing in 2024, it means that the Fed is unlikely to ease dramatically, reducing downward pressure on the USD.
Irrespective of the actual policies that might be adopted by Trump or Biden presidencies (not to mention the possibility that one or the other may not be on the ballot come November), increased uncertainty and increased tail risks will probably be USD supportive.
DXY looks set to trade in a 100.00-110.00 range.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Gold closed at $3,946, up 1.84% from a one-year low of $3,870.25, as Brent's 7.6% slide cut December hike odds to 77%. ETF holdings are still shrinking — a short-covering bounce, not new money.
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for November 5, 2026. Read on for the details.
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for November 6, 2026. Read on for the details.
Gold's $250 week runs into the last payrolls before DecemberSpot gold traded at $4,080.79 after a roughly 6% weekly rally from the Oct 30 low of $3,869.85, touching $4,146.63 on Nov 5. Three bids are stacked into the move: real-rate relief, record official-sector buying, and a geopolitical premium. Tonight's October payrolls (+65K consensus, 4.2% unemployment) decide which bid survives, with $4,000 and $4,200 as the two lines.
Spot gold traded at $4,080.79 after a roughly 6% weekly rally from the Oct 30 low of $3,869.85, touching $4,146.63 on Nov 5. Three bids are stacked into the move: real-rate relief, record official-sector buying, and a geopolitical premium. Tonight's October payrolls (+65K consensus, 4.2% unemployment) decide which bid survives, with $4,000 and $4,200 as the two lines.
Micron's $4.5 billion Taiwan fab won't make a chip until 2028 — the market sold it as a 2026 problemMicron fell 17.46% to $656.39 after Bloomberg reported construction at its $4.5 billion Taoyuan Fab 11E had all but halted over a labor dispute. The plant was not due online until 2028, so no 2026 output is lost. With FY27 EPS consensus near $160 and 2027 HBM sold out, the selloff is a peak-cycle multiple reset, not a demand collapse — and $650 is the line that separates the two.
Micron fell 17.46% to $656.39 after Bloomberg reported construction at its $4.5 billion Taoyuan Fab 11E had all but halted over a labor dispute. The plant was not due online until 2028, so no 2026 output is lost. With FY27 EPS consensus near $160 and 2027 HBM sold out, the selloff is a peak-cycle multiple reset, not a demand collapse — and $650 is the line that separates the two.
Related Instrument
