DXY: Momentum trade – OCBC
Source Fxstreet
The US Dollar (USD) dipped post-CPI (which came in largely in line with estimates) but the dip was short-lived. Bullish momentum eventually saw USD trading fresh highs for the year. DXY was last at 106.70 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Daily momentum is bullish
“Price action demonstrates how markets are still adjusting their expectations with regards to Fed cycle (as more Fedspeaks come), inflation in light of Red sweep outcome and Trump’s policies. More nomination is coming through and the narrative is that Trump may hit the ground running in Jan 2025, unlike in 2016 when he was less prepared. Tariff risk and Trump policy uncertainty may continue to keep Trump trade (i.e. long USD, short CNH) supported in the interim.”
“On Fedspeaks overnight, Logan calls that policymakers should more at a slow pace given uncertainties about how restrictive monetary policy is. Schmid also sounded a note of caution saying that it remains to be seen how much further interest rates will decline or where they might eventually settle. He also warned about higher government debt may weigh on growth and drive rates up and depth of eventual Fed cut remains undetermined. More Fedspeaks are lined up this week, including Powell (Fri).”
“Daily momentum is bullish while RSI rose. Near term risks skewed to the upside. Resistance here at 106.50 levels (2024 high) before 107, 107.40 (2023 high). Support at 105.60 (76.4% fibo), 104.50/60 levels (21DMA, 61.8% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low). For the day, PPI is due.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
