USD Drifts as Consolidation Extends – Scotiabank
Source Fxstreet
The USD continues to drift as it consolidates last week’s advance, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
USD continues to consolidate
“Gains for the JPY and EUR on the session are pressuring the DXY somewhat but the drop in the dollar index still looks more like a pause ahead of renewed gains rather than a reversal. High beta FX is mostly underperforming amid some lumpy moves in Asian stocks and a sharp drop in crude oil (down 2%). The AUD is the main underperformer on the session as markets ponder the outlook for the Chinese economy.”
“Chinese markets returned from holidays with a bang but were unable to sustain strong opening gains. Investors are disappointed with the scale and scope of stimulus measures offered by the authorities. The mainland CSI 300 stock index gave up nearly half of its opening gains on the day while the Hang Seng fell more than 9%. European stocks are in the red while US equity futures are holding small gains.”
“It’s another pretty light session for data—just the Trade Balance update from the US this morning. There is a bit more Fedspeak today (Bostic, Collins—a non-voter—and Jefferson) and a 3Y auction, with results at 1pm. This evening, the RBNZ is expected to cut its key cash rate 50bps to 4.75%.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
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Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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