DXY: Softer NFP to weigh on USD – OCBC

The Dollar Index (DXY) fell last week on softer US data and Fedspeaks, OCBC FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

DXY falls on Fedspeaks and softer US data

“While recent headline NFP may have surprised to the upside at 206k vs 190k, the print is now dipping back below the 6month moving average of 222k. 2month payroll downward net revision was also large at -111k while unemployment rate rose to 4.1% (vs. 4% prior). Job vacancy rate is also on a decline. On net, tightness in labour market is easing.”

“This week, we are keeping a close watch on US CPI report (Thu) and Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Banking senate panel (Tue) and House Financial Services Committee (Wed). If there is no change in tune to Powell’s recent remarks and CPI continues to print softer, then the USD slippage may have room to run.”

“DXY was last seen at Last seen at 104.89. Daily momentum turned bearish while RSI fell. Evening star pattern observed on weekly chart. On net, the bearish setup may have room to run. Support at 104.80 (61.8% fibo retracement of Oct high to 2024 low, 100 DMA), 104.50 (200 DMA) and 103.98 (50% fibo). Resistance at 105.10 (50 DMA), 105.80 (76.4% fibo) and 106.20.”