The US Dollar looks more likely to stabilise than stage another rally – ING

The US Dollar (USD) has declined at the start of this week. Economists at ING analyze Greenback’s outlook.

There are no scheduled Fed speakers today

There are a couple of data releases to watch in the US today after a good Chicago Fed Activity index print, soft manufacturing figures (Dallas Fed index) and lower-than-expected new home sales on Monday. Durable Goods Orders for February are expected to rebound after January’s decline, and the Conference Board consumer confidence is seen stabilising after printing 106.7 in February.

There are no scheduled Fed speakers today, but equity markets seemed to react negatively to Monday’s comments by Raphael Bostic, who reiterated his expectation for only one cut this year and stressed the risks of easing too early. Interestingly, the Dollar did not benefit from the remarks, and we suspect that while a core PCE at 0.3% month-on-month (our call and consensus) on Friday shouldn’t do much to encourage dovish bets, the Dollar looks more likely to stabilise than stage another rally at this point.