Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC trades above $118,000 ahead of the White House's first virtual asset policy report

• Bitcoin price is consolidating between $116,000 and $120,000 after reaching a new all-time high of $123,218 last week.
• US President Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law on Friday, and the White House is scheduled to announce its first virtual asset policy report on Tuesday.
• US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a weekly inflow of $2.39 billion, marking the sixth consecutive week of positive flows since mid-June.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $118,000 at the time of writing on Monday, consolidating within a tight range after reaching a new all-time high of $123,218 in the previous week. US President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law on Friday, marking a significant milestone for the overall crypto market. Additionally, traders await the upcoming release of the White House's first virtual asset policy report on Tuesday, which is expected to provide further direction for the digital asset space and the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Meanwhile, US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded another strong week, with $2.39 billion in inflows, highlighting sustained institutional investor confidence.

White House is set to announce its first virtual asset policy report

The US White House is scheduled to announce its first virtual asset policy report on Tuesday, as required by Executive Order (EO) 14178. US President Donald Trump signed this EO on January 23, initiating a new Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets Markets. The team is tasked with establishing a framework for digital assets regulations that will serve as a guide for the crypto industry within 180 days, ending on Tuesday. 

It also aims to create a strategic national digital asset stockpile for the US. This development could serve as a first step towards establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve as promised by Trump during his presidential campaign. 

The Working Group will function under the oversight of Trump's AI and crypto Czar David Sacks. Other delegates will include the US Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) acting Chair Mark Uyeda, the Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, and other key federal department heads. The executive order also prohibits any action towards creating and promoting a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and reverses the previous Biden administration's order on digital assets.

The outcome of this report on Tuesday could provide regulatory clarity and a framework for regulating digital assets, which could impact the long-term adoption of BTC and its price.

Trump signs GENIUS Act into law

Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law last week on Friday, one day after the US House of Representatives voted 308-122 to advance the legislation. The bill establishes a clear federal regulatory framework for stablecoins and their issuers in the US, mandating full reserves backed by the US Dollar (USD) and clear anti-money laundering (AML) guidance. 

Deutsche Bank Research reported on Monday that this landmark bill positions the US as the frontrunner on stablecoins, paving the way for other countries to review their own stablecoin regulations (or lack thereof). 

“It is a significant milestone for the crypto industry, both in the US and globally,” reported Deutsche Bank analysts.

The report also highlighted that the passage of the GENIUS ACT into law will solidify the US Dollar's dominance, with USD-denominated stablecoins representing over 99% of the total stablecoin market capitalization. The GENIUS Act formalizes stablecoin issuers' role as quasi-money market funds, supporting US short-term debt markets and channeling non-USD liquidity into the US dollar. 

The US Treasury predicts that T-bills held by stablecoin issuers (excluding interest-bearing stablecoins) will grow to approximately $1 trillion by 2028. Tether alone holds over $120 billion in Treasury bills as of Q1 2025, as shown in the graph below, and ranks among the top holders of US Treasuries.

Major foreign holders of US Treasuries, billions (2025) chart. Source: Deutsche Bank Research

Bitcoin institutional demand remains robust 

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong. According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin Spot ETFs have recorded a total inflow of $2.39 billion last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of positive flows since mid-June. If the inflow continues and intensifies, BTC could reach its all-time high level at $123,218 and beyond.

Total Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow weekly chart. Source: SoSoValue

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC consolidates between $116,000 and $120,000

Bitcoin price reached a new all-time high of $123,218 on July 14 and has been trading sideways between $116,000 and $120,000 since then. At the time of writing on Monday, it trades slightly above at around $118,500.

If BTC closes above the upper boundary of consolidation range at $120,000 on a daily basis, it could extend the recovery toward the fresh all-time high at $123,218.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 66 and points upward, indicating bullish momentum. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is about to flip a bearish crossover. If it shows a bearish crossover on a daily basis, it would give a selling signal.

BTC/USDT daily chart

On the contrary, if BTC breaks below the lower consolidation boundary at $116,000 on a daily basis, it could extend the decline to retest the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $110,325.