Trump’s tariff threat sparks sovereignty fight in Brazil’s Supreme Court

Donald Trump’s latest foreign policy play came crashing into Brazil on July 9 when the U.S. president threatened 50% tariffs unless the country’s courts dropped charges against his political ally, Jair Bolsonaro. 

The action blindsided Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court, which wasn’t even in session for the month. Several judges weren’t in the country, but that didn’t stop them from jumping on emergency calls as soon as Trump’s warning dropped, according to reporting from Bloomberg.

Instead of scrambling to calm things down, Alexandre de Moraes, the justice overseeing Bolsonaro’s case, joined other members of the court in planning a response. They wanted to challenge Trump’s claim that Bolsonaro was the victim of a “witch hunt.”

But the idea to speak first was dropped after Chief Justice Luis Roberto Barroso spoke directly with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who said the political side should take the first step.

That same evening, Lula issued a sharp reply: “Brazil is a sovereign country with independent institutions.” The message was meant to show that the executive branch and judiciary weren’t working together on this case, and that the U.S. president had crossed a line by trying to pressure the legal system. Trump’s push to end the trial had, in fact, triggered the opposite.

Justices keep case alive during recess

Thiago de Aragão, head of Arko International, said the strategy backfired. “If there was some expectation that the threats would generate some fear in the Brazilian Supreme Court, the effect is the opposite,” he said. “Their willingness to go through this all the way to the end is much higher.”

And they didn’t wait until August to move. Despite the recess, Moraes kept the case active. On July 14, the Prosecutor General’s Office submitted its final arguments asking for Bolsonaro to be convicted for the attempted January 8 coup. A verdict is expected soon after the court reconvenes in August.

Trump, meanwhile, doubled down in a public letter addressed to Bolsonaro. “It is my sincere hope that the Government of Brazil changes course, stops attacking political opponents, and ends their ridiculous censorship regime,” he wrote. “I will be watching closely.”

Brazil’s top court responded by ordering Bolsonaro to wear an ankle monitor, arguing that he was a flight risk. The U.S. government didn’t back down either. The State Department revoked U.S. visas belonging to Moraes and several other justices involved in the case.

Trump allies step up pressure from Washington

The tension didn’t start overnight. Earlier this year, U.S. diplomats had warned Brazil’s court that continuing the investigation into whether Bolsonaro tried to reverse his 2022 election loss could affect trade ties.

The court ignored the message at the time. They didn’t expect Washington to get involved in a domestic legal issue. But after Trump’s return to the White House, they quickly realized they had misjudged the situation.

For Moraes, over the past year, he has ordered accounts spreading disinformation off platforms like X, Facebook, and Rumble, including during a public fight with Elon Musk. Right-wing media outlets and politicians have attacked him for what they claim is censorship. Bolsonaro’s son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, has spent months lobbying in the U.S. to get sanctions placed on the judge.

Eduardo traveled to Washington DC last week with Paulo Figueiredo, a conservative commentator and grandson of a former Brazilian military dictator. They claimed they met with officials at the State Department and the White House, and left with a warning.

“Everyone’s position was unanimous: There will not be a millimeter of concession unless Brazil takes the first step,” Figueiredo said. “The warning we heard was: ‘If things continue at this pace, President Trump may take additional measures, which could even involve the financial market.’”

Inside Brazil, the court’s view hasn’t changed. For the justices, this is about defending democracy, especially after thousands of Bolsonaro’s supporters stormed the Supreme Court, Congress, and the presidential palace on January 8, 2023. The scenes mirrored the January 6 Capitol attack in Washington, but the legal response was completely different.

In 2023, the electoral court, staffed by rotating Supreme Court justices, banned Bolsonaro from running for office for eight years for spreading lies about the voting system. When federal police recommended coup charges in November 2024, the Supreme Court approved them within months and prepared for trial.

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