Analyst: Cardano To $10 In 2025? These 5 Catalysts Could Ignite ADA

Cardano staking pool operator (SPO) Sssebi (@Av_Sebastian) has ignited a debate by asserting that Cardano’s ADA could reach double-digit territory this year. In a thread that began, “These are the ingredients for $10 $ADA in 2025,” he listed five developments he believes will transform the eighth-largest cryptocurrency from a $0.70 token into a $10 asset. Each of those “ingredients” is now taking shape—and each comes with its own uncertainties.

#1 Cardano Becomes Bitcoin’s DeFi Layer

At the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas, Input Output (IO) stunned attendees by moving a live Bitcoin Ordinal across a new BitVM-based bridge to Cardano. IO called the demonstration “a preview of what is to come,” adding that the “Cardinal” protocol aims for full integration so BTC holders can lend, borrow and stake inside Cardano’s extended-UTxO environment. By transplanting Bitcoin liquidity onto a programmable ledger without wrapped custodial tokens, Cardano positions itself as a settlement layer for so-called BTCFi applications—an addressable market that today tops $1 trillion in dormant value.

#2 The Midnight “Glacier Drop” Airdrop

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson told Consensus 2025 in Toronto that Midnight, his privacy-focused sidechain, will airdrop both NIGHT governance tokens and DUST privacy tokens to “approximately 37 million wallets across eight major blockchains”—with “zero allocation to venture capitalists.” “Every Consensus there’s a new token saying, ‘my thing is better,’” he said. “We’re going to give this away and let users decide.” The sheer scale dwarfs recent airdrops and could seed tens of millions of new ADA-capable addresses once Midnight’s cross-chain fee model pushes traffic back to the base chain.

In February NYSE Arca filed to convert the Grayscale Cardano Trust into a spot ETF. The Securities and Exchange Commission acknowledged the application on 24 February, starting a 240-day clock that now runs to 22 October 2025. The agency’s first-phase deadline of 29 May was pushed to 15 July, following the pattern that preceded January’s Bitcoin ETF approvals.

Grayscale has argued that ADA’s on-chain transparency and staking mechanics make it “substantially resistant to manipulation,” echoing the language that ultimately persuaded regulators on Bitcoin. An approval would give traditional investors a regulated conduit to stake-enabled yield—something no US crypto ETF yet offers.

President Donald Trump’s March executive order created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a US Digital Asset Stockpile to hold crypto seized in federal cases. A subsequent Truth Social post surprised markets by naming “XRP, Solana and Cardano” for inclusion alongside Bitcoin and Ether; ADA jumped more than 70% intraday.

Though the order bars fresh purchases of altcoins, Treasury accounting shows roughly $493 million in non-Bitcoin assets—ADA among them—already earmarked. Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov called the move “a reputational boost, signaling the US. views digital assets as strategic.” Inclusion in a sovereign reserve legitimises ADA for conservative allocators and could ease the path for futures and options listings.

Hoskinson labels Leios “the capstone of the entire Ouroboros agenda … the fastest cryptocurrency on the planet.” In a May 1 livestream he said simulations show “tens of thousands of transactions per second” without sacrificing decentralization. The upgrade introduces parallel input, ranking and endorsement blocks, allowing throughput to be dialed up as adoption demands. If main-net integration lands in H2 2025, Leios would coincide with Midnight’s launch and the ETF review window—an alignment bulls see as catalytic.

ADA trades near $0.70 today, implying a market capitalization of roughly $25 billion. A jump to $10 would push valuation toward $350 billion, rivaling Ethereum’s 2024 peak.