Is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Decoupling From Strategy (MSTR)?

Over the last several weeks, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has decoupled from the stock market and made a new all-time high while major US indexes haven’t followed. Is Bitcoin also beginning to decouple from Strategy (MSTR) shares? According to high timeframe technical signals, the two tightly correlated assets could be beginning to diverge from one another.

Saylor’s Bitcoin 2025 Conference Blunder

During this week’s ongoing Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) frontman and famed Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor shocked the audience by slamming the idea of “proof of reserves.” Saylor compared the practice to “publishing your kids’ bank account” online and warned that it could lead to hacks or worse. He outright called it a “bad idea.”

His comments are a departure from his usual Bitcoin-promoting self, prompting the cryptocurrency community to second-guess if the company holds as much BTC as they claim to.

The company’s most recent purchase of 4,020 BTC at $106,237 per BTC brought Strategy’s holdings to 580,250 BTC with a cost average of $69,979. Strategy’s holdings make the company among the top holders of BTC, behind only Satoshi Nakamoto and BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.

Proof-of-Risky Strategy

In the years, months, weeks, even days leading up to the ongoing conference, Michael Saylor has been pitched as the hero Bitcoin deserves, buying BTC at key inflection points and helping to prop up price.

Almost immediately following videos of Saylor’s response to a question from the audience, sentiment swiftly shifted against Saylor and Strategy. For example, the cover of a March 2000 edition of the Daily News is making rounds, with the headline reading “Lost $6B in a day: Hotshot tech CEO loses fortune as his company’s stock plunges 140 points.”

The headline is in reference to Michael Saylor being the biggest financial loser of the dot com bubble. At the time, MSTR share price fell by 99%.

A Correlation on the Cusp of Decoupling

Because Strategy’s growth has been directly tied to Bitcoin’s price trajectory, BTCUSD and MSTR have been closely correlated. The monthly Correlation Coefficient is currently at a reading of 0.83, suggesting an extremely strong positive correlation.

However, previously similar technical signals on both assets have started to diverge, hinting at either a potential decoupling between BTCUSD and MSTR.

The monthly LMACD is a momentum indicator. On the left, MSTR shows a bearish crossover. On the right, Bitcoin shows increasing bullish momentum. If MSTR crashes from here, and Bitcoin rallies, the decoupling event could come to fruition.

There still remains the possibility that the two assets stay tightly correlated, and MSTR’s bearish momentum could spill over into Bitcoin – pulling momentum over on the BTCUSD chart as well.

https://x.com/TonyTheBullCMT/status/1927717056754934251

Tony is the author of the CoinChartist (VIP) newsletter. Sign up for free. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from Shutterstock, Charts from TradingView.com