Bitcoin Mirrors Gold’s Breakout Structure – New ATH Coming In Q2 2025?

Bitcoin is currently trading around the $96,000 mark after a week of strong bullish price action that saw it reach $97,900 — its highest level since the March sell-off. The price now flirts with the psychological $100,000 barrier, a key milestone that could confirm the start of a new macro uptrend. However, global macroeconomic tensions remain, with concerns over inflation, trade conflicts, and monetary tightening still weighing on investor sentiment.

Despite the uncertainty, optimism is growing among long-term holders and market participants who expect a breakout in the coming weeks. Top analyst Ted Pillows shared an insightful comparison, suggesting that Bitcoin is currently mirroring gold’s recent price cycle: a deep accumulation phase followed by a breakout to all-time highs. According to Pillows, Bitcoin entered a re-accumulation phase after the March 2024 peak and successfully broke out of it in Q4 2024 — just as gold did before hitting record highs.

Now, BTC appears to be following the same trajectory, with investor confidence building as supply tightens and demand climbs. If the pattern continues, a sustained push above $100K could usher in a new leg of the bull cycle, drawing even more capital into the crypto market.

Bitcoin Approaches Major Test As It Tracks Gold’s Path

Bitcoin is once again at a decisive moment, trading just below the highly anticipated $100,000 mark. After weeks of steady gains and a recent push above $97,000, bulls appear confident—but market participants remain cautious. A successful breakout above $100K would not only mark a major psychological milestone, but also signal the start of a new bullish macro phase. However, ongoing macroeconomic tensions, including inflationary pressure, global trade instability, and lingering recession fears, continue to weigh heavily on the broader market.

Pillows shared a compelling outlook, noting that Bitcoin appears to be tracing the same path as gold’s recent rally. According to his analysis, BTC underwent a classic accumulation phase in early 2024, similar to gold’s behavior before it reached all-time highs. This was followed by a breakout and re-accumulation, culminating in another breakout during Q4 2024. Since then, Bitcoin entered a months-long consolidation phase, coiling within a defined range and building the necessary strength for its next leg up.

Pillows believes that the breakout has already begun and expects a new all-time high to be set in Q2 2025. If this scenario plays out, Bitcoin would likely surpass the $100K resistance and potentially open the door to a fresh wave of capital inflows across the crypto market.

BTC Price Consolidates Ahead Of Critical Test

Bitcoin is trading at $96,500 after several days of tight consolidation just below the $98,000 mark. The recent upward momentum has slowed, but bulls remain in control as BTC holds firmly above key short-term support levels. The $100,000 resistance remains the most important milestone on the horizon—reclaiming it would confirm a breakout and likely ignite the next leg of the bullish cycle.

However, price action suggests that the market is waiting for a catalyst to break this range. A decisive move above $98K could set the tone for a push toward six figures, while continued rejection near this level could erode short-term momentum. If Bitcoin fails to hold the $95K support zone, it may trigger a correction into the low $90K region, where the next major support lies around the $88,500 level—home to the 200-day moving average.

Overall, the setup remains constructive, but bulls must prove strength soon. With macroeconomic uncertainty still looming and global liquidity conditions tightening, market participants are closely watching for signs of confirmation—or weakness—in Bitcoin’s current structure. Until then, the $95K–$100K range remains the battleground.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView