Recession will mainly be limited to the US, the rest of the world is about to boom – Sir Schiff

Economist and gold advocate Peter Schiff said on Thursday that with the Trump tariffs, the US would soon find itself in a recession, but the rest of the world would thrive. “The rest of the world is about to boom, as they will be liberated from having to subsidize the US economy,” he wrote.

The SchiffGold founder has long bashed the US economic system for “relying too heavily” on foreign economies to support American consumption. According to Schiff, the US faces a difficult road ahead when other nations grow, as they can focus on consuming more of what they already produce. 

Commodities like oil, silver, and copper are down sharply today as investors are pricing in a global recession. But the recession will mainly be limited to the U.S. The rest of the world is about to boom, as they will be liberated from having to subsidize the U.S. economy.

The…

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) April 3, 2025

He believes the US will be forced to make significant investments in its own production capabilities, a process he warns will require painful short-term sacrifices.

Post-Liberation Day market chaos 

Schiff’s forecast came against the backdrop of a global market bloodbath triggered by President Donald Trump’s April 2 announcement of reciprocal tariffs on nearly all imports into the United States. 

Trump seems to have shaken up markets around the world, causing sharp drops in a number of measures. The S&P 500 fell 3.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1,204 points, or 2.9%, in the early hours of Thursday. The Nasdaq fell 5.6%, which would be the worst day for it since March 2020.

Europe’s STOXX 600 index tumbled 2.67%, and Germany’s DAX fell 3.08%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 sank 2.77%, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down by 1.52%.

Global investors fear that the tariffs could lead to retaliation from international trading partners, exacerbating an already fragile economic environment.

In an X post today, British broadcaster Piers Morgan told followers that Trump’s tariff war could either be a “spectacular success” or a “total disaster,” adding that he had no clue which direction it would go.

PREDICTION: President Trump’s global tariff war is either going to be a spectacular success or a total disaster. I have no clue which.

— Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) April 2, 2025

Meanwhile, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman of Pershing Square also commented on the market situation, saying: “Sometimes the best strategy in a negotiation is convincing the other side that you are crazy.” Morgan quoted Ackman’s post, replying with the word “true.”

Late Wednesday, Schiff called out Republican Senators for not supporting Senator Rand Paul’s stance against Trump’s tariff strategy. He reckoned that the tariffs, while perhaps well-intentioned, would ultimately harm the very people they were meant to protect. 

“Are there no other Republicans willing to help Trump understand that while well-intentioned, his tariffs are wrong?” the 62-year-old gold asset manager asked.

In his earlier posts, Schiff asserted that the world doesn’t need Americans to buy products; rather, it is Americans who need the world to make products. 

“There are consumers all over the world eager to buy what Americans can no longer afford. As the US dollar falls and their own currencies rise, that is precisely what will happen,” he concluded.

Oil prices, dollar index nosedive, Gold climbs

US oil futures dropped 7.59%, settling at $66.27 a barrel, marking their worst day since July 2022. Similarly, Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 6.95%. Analysts believe the fears surrounding President Trump’s trade war, compounded by concerns that the global economy would slow, could have reduced the demand for oil.

US-based companies that depend on international supply chains also felt the effects of the tariffs. Apple’s stock dropped by 8%, Nike’s plunged by 10.72%, and both Best Buy and Ralph Lauren shed off over 14%.  

According to TradingEconomics data, the US dollar index plummeted nearly 2% to 101.8, its steepest single-day decline in over two years and reaching its lowest point in six months.

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