Bitcoin Realized HODL Waves Signals Strong Market Confidence – Details

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, according to a post on X by White House Crypto and AI czar David Sacks. The announcement was expected to boost market confidence, but instead, Bitcoin fell as the order details disappointed investors who had anticipated a more bullish stance from the administration.

Bitcoin has been struggling around the $90,000 level, unable to reclaim it as support or confirm a recovery from the selling pressure that has dominated the market in recent weeks. Despite several attempts to push higher, BTC has remained in a volatile range, with uncertainty keeping traders cautious.

Key on-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals that the Realized Cap HODL Waves chart shows a substantial portion of Bitcoin is currently concentrated in the 3–6 month holding range. This suggests that many investors who entered the market recently are still holding onto their coins, despite the volatility.

With Bitcoin failing to break key resistance, traders are watching for a decisive move—either a breakout above $90K or a deeper correction. The next few days will be crucial in determining BTC’s short-term trajectory as uncertainty continues to dominate the market.

Bitcoin Shows Signs Of Recovery Amid Volatility

Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $90,000 mark but continues to hold firm above $85,000, a critical support level that could serve as a decisive point of inflection if bulls fail to defend it. With BTC trapped in a volatile range, a break below $85K could trigger a deeper correction, while a reclaim of $90K could signal renewed strength and a push toward higher levels.

The decline in cryptocurrencies closely mirrors the downtrend in U.S. stock markets as investors react to fears of a widening global trade war and broader economic instability. However, this turbulence could fade if upcoming policy decisions—such as tax cuts, regulatory clarity, and institutional incentives—provide tangible benefits for investors. If confidence returns, Bitcoin could stage a strong recovery and move toward new all-time highs.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights on X, pointing to on-chain data from the Realized Cap HODL Waves chart, which reveals that a significant portion of Bitcoin is currently concentrated in the 3–6 month holding range. Adler notes that historically, the longer coins remain “locked in” by investors, the stronger market confidence becomes. This suggests that many recent buyers are holding firm despite volatility, reinforcing the notion that Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains strong.

With market sentiment still mixed, traders are watching whether BTC can hold $85K and push higher or risk another leg down. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can reclaim key resistance levels or if further downside awaits.

BTC Bulls Face A Critical Test

Bitcoin is currently trading at $89,000, facing persistent selling pressure as bulls struggle to regain control of key levels. Despite multiple attempts to push higher, BTC remains uncertain, unable to confirm a move into higher supply zones or a deeper drop into lower demand levels.

For bulls to reclaim momentum, Bitcoin must break above $90,000 with strength and quickly aim for a move toward $100,000. A decisive reclaim of these levels would signal renewed buying interest and trigger a strong rally. However, BTC remains at risk of continued sideways action or another sell-off without a clear breakout.

If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $90K and loses support at $85K, the market could see another leg down, with $78,000 emerging as the next key target. This would indicate increased selling pressure and potential panic selling, forcing BTC into a deeper correction.

For now, uncertainty continues to dominate, leaving traders watching whether BTC will hold above $85K or break higher. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin reclaims strength or faces another wave of downside pressure.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView