Trump’s tariffs on the EU might be determined by his relationship with Putin

European leaders are staring down their worst nightmare: Russia is getting more aggressive, and they might have to deal with it alone.

The U.S. has made it painfully clear where it stands. When it joined Russia and North Korea to block a UN resolution condemning Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, alarm bells went off across Europe. But the real gut punch came when Trump embarrassed Zelenskiy right in the Oval Office, in front of the world. That moment shattered whatever trust was left between the U.S. and its European allies.

More than half a dozen high-ranking European officials, who have kept their cool through wars and financial collapses, reacted with pure fury. For them, this wasn’t just bad diplomacy—it was proof that the U.S. and Europe no longer share the same values. The security alliance that had existed since World War II had just been thrown into question.

Putin offers rare-earth deals as Europe scrambles

Putin, sensing an opportunity, wasted no time. In a viral video, he said he’s open to cooperating with the U.S. on rare-earth minerals. “We will be open to cooperation with our American partners,” he said. He clarified that this includes private companies, not just the government.

He also pointed out that Russia has far bigger reserves of these minerals than Ukraine. “Russia possesses significantly higher resources of this kind (rare earth minerals) than Ukraine,” he said. He listed Murmansk, the Caucasus, Irkutsk, Yakutia, and Tuva as key mining areas. But extracting these resources isn’t cheap. Russia needs foreign investment, and Putin is ready to work with whoever is willing—even the U.S.

“The same is true for new territories,” Putin added, referring to the areas Russia has taken since invading Ukraine in 2022. “We are ready to work with our partners, including Americans.”

With Trump pulling back and Russia pushing forward, Europe has to act fast. Macron, Starmer, and von der Leyen are meeting with Zelenskiy in London to figure out their next steps. The EU is already working on an emergency military aid package worth €20 billion ($21 billion) for Ukraine. But that’s just a drop in the ocean. They need hundreds of billions more to rebuild their defense.

For the first time in 80 years, Europe is preparing to take full responsibility for its own security. That’s going to require massive spending, something they’ve avoided for decades. “While I would like to imagine that Europe will step up to fill the gap, and do so in time, I’d bet 3-1 against it,” Allison said. He expects Ukraine to accept a bitter peace settlement by the end of the summer.

The EU-US trade relationship is the biggest in the world, worth €1.6 trillion in 2023, with €5.3 trillion invested between both markets. But with Trump threatening to slap tariffs on EU exports, the European Commission is getting ready to hit back. They’re drafting lists of U.S. goods to target if Trump follows through.

Beyond that, Europe is looking elsewhere. It’s strengthening ties with Canada, Asia, and Latin America. The message is clear: if Trump won’t play ball, they’ll find new trade partners.

The UK drifts closer to Europe as crisis deepens

The crisis with the US has also drawn the UK closer to the EU again, after years of bitterness over Brexit. On Tuesday, the British prime minister said the shifting geopolitical landscape means a “new alliance” between the UK and Europe will be necessary.

A senior EU official told Bloomberg that defense budgets need to jump to 3% of GDP next year. In extreme cases, that could go as high as 7%. Right now, Europe relies heavily on the U.S. for intelligence, space operations, and battlefield communications. If Trump cuts support, replacing that will be almost impossible.

That’s why some leaders, like Giorgia Meloni, want a summit with the U.S. to salvage what’s left of the relationship. But for many in Europe, it’s time to move on. The focus is shifting to building a defense system without the U.S.

For decades, the U.S.-EU alliance worked because it was based on trust. Nations chose to be part of it. But Trump has broken that trust, and Europe is responding by looking for alternatives.

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