Bitcoin’s journey so far has been nothing short of shocking. From ETF approval to countries warming up to crypto regulation, the crypto landscape seems to have changed quite a bit. Retail, which was a major driver of the bull runs so far, seems to be absent this cycle; a quick Google Trends search reveals low interest.
Google Trends
Relying solely on Google Trends is not enough due to the changing landscape of how users access information. According to Coinbase’s recent earnings report, retail activity stayed low in Q4 of 2023. To be more specific, the retail activity between Q2 2022 to Q4 2023 remained below Q4 2020, which adds more credence that the retail is not here yet.
Coinbase quarterly retail activity
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Here are a few reasons that could account for the lack of retail involvement.
While all or some of the above could be true, let’s elaborate on the fourth point.
Assuming that this cycle is different, let’s take a look at the Bitcoin price chart and discuss what to expect next.
If the cycle is different due to the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF, then the ongoing move could be an accumulation phase. In this case, retail will likely enter at or after overcoming the all-time high (ATH) of $69,000.
This outlook spawns two questions.
Despite being only 23% away from the ATHs, the institutional accumulation phase could last longer, especially if BTC corrects
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The 2019 mini cycle pushed Bitcoin price from a cycle low of $3,124 to $13,870, i.e., BTC was roughly 30% away from its all-time high. After forming this local top, there was a slow bleed that corrected to $3,880.
BTC/USD 1-week chart
Bitcoin price has rallied 242% from the previous cycle’s low of $15,473 and set up a local top of $53,000, i.e., it is roughly 24% away from its all-time high of $69,000. While history may not repeat, it often rhymes. Hence, there is still a chance this uptrend could form a local top at roughly $53,000 and correct lower.
The correction could send BTC to $42,235, which is the midpoint of the previous bear market’s range. Although unlikely, investors should exercise caution on the breakdown of the aforementioned level. This bearish development could send Bitcoin price to the next key support level of $32,293.
BTC/USD 1-week chart
Concluding thoughts
While a corrective outlook is highly unlikely, it should not be overlooked. Overcoming the $52,000 to $53,000 hurdle will open up the path for Bitcoin price to reach $60,000 and then attempt a retest of the all-time high at $69,000. Beyond this level, BTC will enter price discovery mode, where it will be free from shackles and completely reliant on investors sentiment and capital inflows.