Bets are flowing in for Bitcoin reaching $100K

Polymarket has a hot new pair – the bet on whether BTC reaches $100K. In the post-election period, Polymarket is rebuilding its volumes, capitalizing on the latest BTC rally above $84,000.

Polymarket once again drew attention to its predictive powers. Bets on Bitcoin (BTC) breaking $100K are growing, leading to a vertical climb for the ‘Yes’ token. Just like the US election result, the approach of the possible event will accelerate bets. However, latecomers will have to enter the ‘Yes’ token at a higher price. 

There are several bets active on BTC reaching six-digit prices. The bet that sparked a buying frenzy asks whether BTC will hit $100K by the end of the year. The chances based on token buying ranged between 49% and 53% as of November 11, rising rapidly within one day. The odds may change at any moment, while also reflecting the trend of greed and FOMO on the spot market. 

The betting pair has $2.6M in volumes, a factor of 1,000 smaller than the size of political markets. At this range, the pair may be more volatile, or even easily swayed by whale activity. 

Other predictions on the price of BTC do not follow strong convictions. The November betting pair only has 26% odds of reaching $100K from current price levels. For different price tiers, the bets are heating up on BTC reaching $90,000, with the ‘Yes’ token at 72%. 

The BTC price is extremely dynamic and may be swayed in minutes. The currently available markets may not have the predictive power of the political bets, where the odds had more chances to be estimated. Some of the markets show increasing demand and a shift in odds, potentially acting as a self-fulfilling signal for BTC. The November price bet to $100K rallied from 26% to 33% within minutes and may be the next pair to draw in buyers and traders.

The remaining smaller betting pairs do not draw in the same size of whales with million-dollar investments. For the BTC bet on crossing $100K in 2024, the largest bet holds 263,197 ‘no’ shares, while the largest positive bet holds 50,773 shares. Activity on the pair also circles around small-scale buying and scaling, with positions as low as $5. 

Betting on the BTC price through Polymarket is also easier and cheaper, as Polygon still offers low-cost and simpler entry points. Direct leveraged betting on BTC may not be accessible to all, as Polymarket offers zero fees and a testing ground for small-scale users.

Even on the larger market for November bets, volumes are at around $9.3M for all price levels and positions. There are no significant whales and the market does not seem to shed light on Bitcoin’s fundamentals. 

Polymarket post-election activity is down by 50%

For the past few days, Polymarket lost about 50% of its daily users, as well as 50% of its open interest. The platform switched to sports betting on the Premier League as its top bet, with $390M in volumes. 

However, the platform remains as lively as ever, with more than 16K daily active users. The available open interest stabilized around $179M after the biggest political whales withdrew their earnings. 

Polymarket now serves a smaller user base, but one dedicated to high-volume activity. The platform also hinted at an airdrop, retaining activity from small-bet accounts, as well as high-frequency bettors. The activity may continue with the hope of a snapshot that will award points and tokens for taking a small risk. 

As usual, the amount of bettors out of the money is dominating. 85% of accounts realize losses, with 15% in the green. The ratio fluctuates over time, leading to 89% of traders on the losing side during peak election season.