US election fever fired crypto prediction markets by an outstanding 565% in Q3 2024

Crypto prediction markets have had a stellar performance in Q3 2024. That’s according to a new Coingecko report showing that the sector’s top three players, Polymarket, Azuro, and Drift, had a combined volume of  $3.1B. 

That figure was a massive 565.4% surge from their Q2 figure of $466.3M, which was a 160% jump from the $291M. The trio also registered a neatly two-fold rise in their betting numbers, from 1.4M in Q1 to 2.5M in Q3.

Coingecko’s study also credits the upcoming US presidential elections for the sector’s impressive showing. The November 5th polls have drawn global interest owing to their historical nature. Democrat Kamala Harris is gunning to be America’s first female president. Meanwhile, former president Donald Trump is vying for a second stint at the White House after a four-year hiatus.

Polymarket dominates the crypto prediction market

Coingecko’s report also shows Polymatket’s dominance of the prediction markets. It states:

“However, the majority of volume was on Polymarket, which accounted for 99% of market share in September. Its betting volume grew by 713.2%, and transactions grew by 848.5% in the same period.

~Coingecko

It adds that punters have placed bets amounting to $1.7B on the “US Presidential Election Winner” since early 2024. That figure accounts for nearly 46% of Polymarket’s yearly volume.

The crypto-based bookie has made headlines with its predictions of trending topics, including the US presidential race. Its latest projections indicate that Trump had gained a 10-point lead over Harris in his White House push. It reckons the former’s odds of clinching the presidency are 54.9%, with the incumbent vice president trailing at 44.6%.

What does the future hold for Polymarket?

Despite its growing popularity, the platform that uses Ethereum Smart contracts to settle bets remains an outlawed outfit in America. That’s because the New York-based bookmaker lacks the Commodities Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) approval. It ceased its American operations in 2022 after accepting a $1.2M settlement with the CFTC for non-compliance.

Some quarters have speculated that Polymarket would resume its American operations following a landmark court ruling favoring election-based betting markets. That case pitted another similar platform, Kalshi, against the CFTC. In the October 11th judgment, a DC court sided with Kalshi, who sought orders barring the regulator from restricting electoral betting markets.

Polymarket has remained tight-lipped on the development and its supposed return to the American market. What’s not in doubt, though, is its push to strengthen its dominance in the prediction markets space. The firm completed a $70M VC round to bolster its operations, laying some credence to rumors of its re-entry.