How Circle Went From $50 to $129 in 6 Weeks While Crypto Crashed 44%

Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) surged from its 52-week low of $49.90 on Feb. 5 to roughly $129 by mid-March, gaining approximately 160% while broader crypto markets continued to fall.

The rally followed five simultaneous catalysts that prompted Wall Street to stop treating CRCL as a crypto proxy and start modeling it as payments infrastructure.

Why the Broader Crypto Crash Matters for This Story

Bitcoin (BTC) peaked near $126,000 in early October 2025 and has since dropped roughly 44%, falling to the $69,898 as of this writing.

Massive leveraged liquidations on October 10 wiped out more than $19 billion in a single day and triggered sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs for months.

Yet USD Coin (USDC) supply moved in the opposite direction. Circulation grew from $75.3 billion at the end of 2025 to approximately $81 billion by mid-March 2026, according to on-chain data. That divergence caught the analyst’s attention.

Clear Street upgraded CRCL from Hold to Buy on March 16 with a $136 price target, up from $92.

The firm cited five drivers of USDC growth despite the broader drawdown, including: \

• Tokenization
• Prediction markets
• Agentic AI convergence, and
• Potential passage of the CLARITY Act.

Five Catalysts Behind the Re-Rating

The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates higher for longer kept yields on CRCL’s reserve portfolio supportive. Circle reported $733 million in Q4 reserve income alone, up 69% year over year.

The company holds USDC reserves primarily in short-term U.S. Treasuries and cash, generating high-margin float income on roughly $81 billion in assets.

On February 25, Circle delivered a Q4 2025 earnings beat, sending shares up 35% in a single session. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.43, well above the $0.15-$0.35 consensus range depending on the source.

Revenue plus reserve income hit $770 million, up 77% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA surged 412% to $167 million.

Meanwhile, Mizuho published research on March 13 showing that USDC had overtaken Tether’s USDT in adjusted transaction volume for the first time since 2019.

USDC processed approximately $2.2 trillion year to date, compared with $1.3 trillion for USDT. That gave USDC a 64% share of adjusted stablecoin volume, ahead of the two dominant tokens.

Perhaps the most forward-looking catalyst involves artificial intelligence. Circle’s Global Head of Marketing, Peter Schroeder, disclosed on X (Twitter) that AI agents completed 140 million payments over nine months, totaling $43 million.

Of those, 98.6% settled in USDC, with an average transaction size of just $0.31. More than 400,000 AI agents now hold purchasing power.

Stripe launched its Machine Payments system for AI agents to pay directly in USDC. Coinbase incubated the x402 open payment protocol on Base, and Google’s open agent payment standard includes x402 as a settlement layer. Cloudflare, AWS, and Circle itself are all building on these rails.

Analysts Shift From Skepticism to Upgrades

Before the rally, Compass Point analyst Ed Engel held the most bearish view on Wall Street, with a Sell rating and the lowest price target. On January 29, Engel upgraded CRCL to Neutral, citing that many of his prior concerns had been priced in.

However, Engel maintained caution, noting that over 75% of USDC supply sits in DeFi applications or on crypto exchanges, tying Circle’s revenue to speculative crypto cycles.

He also flagged competition from bank-issued deposit coins by JPMorgan, State Street, and BNY Mellon.

On the bullish side, Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating with a $190 price target. William Blair also maintained its Outperform call. Mizuho raised its target to $120 from $100 while keeping a Neutral stance.

The consensus among 17 analysts as of mid-March sat at Buy, with an average price target of approximately $124.

“Banks, payment companies, tech firms around the world are leaning in and wanting to weave stablecoins into their product strategies,” said Jeremy Allaire during the Q4 2025 Earnings Call.

Justin Sun of TRON offered a contrarian take on X, arguing that TRON generated $3.3 billion in profit over the past year while Circle operated at a GAAP loss, yet carries a market cap 70 times larger.

The question now is whether USDC’s volume dominance and AI payment adoption can sustain a valuation that has already priced in substantial growth.

If the CLARITY Act passes and AI micropayment volumes accelerate through Stripe and Google integrations, the re-rating may still have room to run.

If Fed rate cuts arrive faster than expected, the reserve income engine that powers Circle’s margins could face headwinds.