Dogecoin on-chain metrics signal DOGE could suffer price drop

Source Fxstreet
  • Dogecoin transaction volume has increased by nearly 80% between April 6 and 15, while DOGE price declined. 
  • Retail holders and small-wallet investors accumulated DOGE in the recent price dip, but whales sold their meme coin holdings. 
  • DOGE on-chain metrics signal the likelihood of further correction after 3.3% losses on the daily time frame.

Dogecoin (DOGE), one of the largest meme coins in the crypto ecosystem, has noted an increase in on-chain activity alongside a price correction since the beginning of April. DOGE price, which is down 3.3% on the day, is at risk of a further drop as whales shed their token holdings. 

Three on-chain metrics bode no good for DOGE

  • Transaction volume climbed 80% between April 6 and April 15 

DOGE transaction volume was up from $2.99 billion on April 6 to $5.36 billion on April 15. Typically, an increase in transaction volume shows that the token is relevant and there is higher user activity. However, this increase in volume has come hand in hand with a more than 13% price decline. 

DOGE

Transaction volume and price 

  • Retail investors are accumulating while whales distribute 

An analysis of Santiment data for wallets holding between 1,000 to 10,000,000 DOGE tokens shows that small-wallet holders are accumulating through the recent “dip” in Dogecoin price. Wallets holding between 1,000 to 10,000; 10,000 to 100,000 and 100,000 to 1,000,000 DOGE tokens have rapidly accumulated the meme coin, while the cohort of DOGE holders with 1 million to 10 million DOGE tokens in their wallets has shed the meme coin. 

Typically, whale holdings decrease near a price correction. As seen in the chart below, this cohort (holders of 1 million to 10 million DOGE) has shed their holdings ahead of price decline in DOGE, as seen on March 4 as well. If history is meant to repeat, market participants can expect a correction in DOGE price. 

DOGE supply distribution

DOGE supply distribution

  • Nearly 81% of wallets are profitable

Data from IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money map, a tool that calculates the average cost basis of the tokens currently held by the addresses, shows that nearly 81% of wallets holding DOGE are currently profitable. Wallets holding 123.18 billion DOGE tokens worth $19.24 billion are sitting on unrealized gains. These traders are likely to take profits, increasing the likelihood of higher selling pressure on DOGE in the coming days or weeks. 

While this metric is typically used to identify support and resistance levels, it also signals whether there is a high or low likelihood of profit-taking by traders.     

DOGE

Global In/Out of the Money 

DOGE price trades at $0.1564 at the time of writing, down nearly 3.3% on the day. The meme coin is in a downward trend, ahead of Dogecoin Day on April 20, an informal holiday created by the asset’s traders in honor of the 420 meme in the community. 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts higher above $4,200 as Fed delivers expected cutGold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,235 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends its upside after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered an expected third consecutive interest rate cut and maintained its outlook for just one cut in 2026.
Author  FXStreet
Dec 11, Thu
Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,235 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends its upside after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered an expected third consecutive interest rate cut and maintained its outlook for just one cut in 2026.
placeholder
Gold remains bid as lack of Fed clarity and geopolitical frictions persistGold (XAU/USD) advances modestly on Friday as traders seem to book profits ahead of the weekend, yet clings to gains of over 0.51% after reaching a seven-week high of $4,353. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,302 as traders digest comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 01: 34
Gold (XAU/USD) advances modestly on Friday as traders seem to book profits ahead of the weekend, yet clings to gains of over 0.51% after reaching a seven-week high of $4,353. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,302 as traders digest comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.
placeholder
Ethereum Price Slips Lower — $3,000 Looms as the Key BattlegroundEthereum is attempting to recover from a $3,026 low but remains below $3,200 and the 100-hour SMA, with a bearish trend line near $3,175 capping rebounds as bulls need a clean break above $3,200 to target $3,250–$3,400, while a drop below $3,050 risks a retest of $3,000 and $2,940.
Author  Mitrade
Yesterday 03: 25
Ethereum is attempting to recover from a $3,026 low but remains below $3,200 and the 100-hour SMA, with a bearish trend line near $3,175 capping rebounds as bulls need a clean break above $3,200 to target $3,250–$3,400, while a drop below $3,050 risks a retest of $3,000 and $2,940.
placeholder
Macro Analysts: Hawkish Japan Could Push Bitcoin Below $70KAnalysts predict Bitcoin may face further declines towards the $70,000 mark if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates as expected.
Author  Mitrade
Yesterday 05: 48
Analysts predict Bitcoin may face further declines towards the $70,000 mark if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates as expected.
placeholder
Bitcoin Slides 5% as Sellers Lean In — Can BTC Reclaim $88,000?Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
Author  Mitrade
10 hours ago
Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000. Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.” Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal. Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000(h3) BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500. The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet. Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot: It’s trading below $88,000, and It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward. Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area(h3) If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession. First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim. A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle. If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased. If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear(h3) The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower. Support levels line up like this: Immediate support: $85,500 First major support: $85,000 Next support: $83,500 Then $82,500 in the near term Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking. Indicators: momentum still leans bearish(h3) The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet: Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes. So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
goTop
quote