Gold Prices Surpass $3,000 for First Time — Is the 2025 Target Obsolete?

TradingKey — Gold prices have breached the $3,000 per ounce milestone for the first time in history, driven by surging safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions sparked by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

On Friday, March 14th, the price of gold (XAU/USD) rose above $3,000 per ounce and is currently quoted at $2,997 per ounce. The precious metal has rallied 5% since March, extending its year-to-date gains for 2025 and marking three consecutive months of growth.

Over the past year, gold has soared nearly 40%, outperforming major assets like the S&P 500. The surge follows Trump’s warnings to impose 50% tariffs on Canadian steel/aluminum and 250% tariffs on dairy products, with recent threats of 200% duties on EU alcoholic beverages reigniting fears of a global trade war.

While current and former U.S. Treasury Secretaries have downplayed recession risks, economists increasingly warn of a 65% probability of a U.S. economic downturn — a key catalyst for gold’s rally. 

Analysts highlight gold’s role as a hedge against the most severe macroeconomic turmoil witnessed in modern history.

Macquarie Group predicts prices could reach $3,500/oz by Q3 2025, citing gold’s dual appeal as a:

• Safe-haven asset amid fiscal uncertainty
• Monetary anchor as concerns over U.S. deficit expansion grow
  Both institutional and retail investors are accelerating allocations to gold to mitigate counterparty and credit risks.

BNP Paribas analysts project gold may exceed $3,100/oz in Q2 2025, bolstered by expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts and sustained central bank buying.