Oil: A price increase is likely – Commerzbank
Source Fxstreet
The outcome of the US presidential election is also likely to have an impact on the oil market. However, the Trump effect on prices is rather unclear here, so that only concrete measures are likely to move prices, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.
Withdrawal of the voluntary cuts can result in an oversupply
“In the short term, the oil price will be determined by the production plans of the eight OPEC+ countries, which had committed themselves to voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day almost a year ago. At the beginning of September, they had announced that they would start to reopen the oil tap from December onwards, month by month, by a total of around 180,000 barrels per day.”
“However, according to the Reuters news agency, sources close to OPEC have indicated that this production increase will be postponed again by at least one month. This would likely mean that the decision would be postponed until 1 December, when the oil ministers of the cartel will hold their next regular meeting to decide on next year's production strategy.”
“Although most of the production cuts are fixed until the end of 2025, a withdrawal of the voluntary cuts could result in an oversupply that would put further pressure on prices. If the postponement is announced at the beginning of next week, this should support prices. However, they are unlikely to rise significantly, as China's crude oil imports, which are due to be published on Thursday, are likely to bring demand concerns back into focus. A price increase would be likely if Iran were to attack Israel again in the coming days.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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