Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD trades mildly lower and closes a losing week after US PCE figures

Source Fxstreet
  • The XAU/USD experiences a slight decrease, holding slightly above $2,018 with a minor pullback.
  • Key indicators such as RSI and MACD demonstrate a subdued buying momentum, as bulls consolidate December’s rally.

On Friday's session, the XAU/USD was seen trading at $2,018, presenting a slight decline of 0.08% and closing a 0.55% weekly loss. After reaching a level of $2,135 in December, buyers have been largely taking a pause, suggesting a neutral to a bullish outlook on the daily chart. Despite some momentum observed in the four-hour chart, the indicators remain relatively weak.

In addition, the USD recovery fueled by markets adjusting their bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) due to the US economy showing resilience is pushing the metal lower. On Friday, soft Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures from December from the US didn’t fuel a significant reaction to the market expectations on the Fed which meets next week. As for now, markets pushed the start of the easing cycle to May from March but the Fed's tone may change those expectations.

XAU/USD levels to watch

The technical indicators on the daily chart, specifically the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the position of the metal regarding its 20, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) paint a diverse picture. Despite the RSI showing a negative slope and currently residing in negative territory, the price manages to stay above the 20, 100, and 200-day SMAs. This is indicative of bullish standing in the broader time frame, and the recent pullback could be explained by the bulls taking a breather after pushing the price to a high of $2,135 in December.

Drilling down to the narrower four-hour chart, the momentum indicators present weak yet existent bullish undertones. The four-hour RSI shows a negative slope but is currently in positive territory, while the four-hour Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to produce flat red bars, again suggesting a hold on bearish momentum.

XAU/USD daily chart

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
US September CPI preview: inflation set to hit 3.7% — will the Fed hike in December?US September CPI lands Wednesday with headline inflation seen at 3.7% y/y and core at 0.2% m/m. December hike odds sit near 70% — here are the scenarios, the calendar and the key levels.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 10, Sat
US September CPI lands Wednesday with headline inflation seen at 3.7% y/y and core at 0.2% m/m. December hike odds sit near 70% — here are the scenarios, the calendar and the key levels.
placeholder
Bank earnings kick off tomorrow with the S&P 500 seven points from a record — what JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi and Wells Fargo must proveQ3 earnings season starts Tuesday with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo reporting before the open — with the S&P 500 just 7 points from its record close, bank stocks down 7.5% over the past month, and September CPI landing the next day. Here are the numbers to watch, the two-sided setup and the levels that matter.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 12, Mon
Q3 earnings season starts Tuesday with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo reporting before the open — with the S&P 500 just 7 points from its record close, bank stocks down 7.5% over the past month, and September CPI landing the next day. Here are the numbers to watch, the two-sided setup and the levels that matter.
placeholder
Copper hits a two-week high on a Codelco supply halt — silver slips below $61 as CPI loomsLME three-month copper rose 0.56% to $14,618.50 a tonne on Monday — a two-week high — after a landslide at Codelco's El Teniente mine killed two workers and halted part of the operation; COMEX copper gained 1.04% to $6.7615/lb before easing back on Tuesday. Silver, meanwhile, slipped below $61 as precious metals marked time ahead of Wednesday's US CPI. Here are the levels, the supply story and the scenarios.
Author  Irene Q.
20 hours ago
LME three-month copper rose 0.56% to $14,618.50 a tonne on Monday — a two-week high — after a landslide at Codelco's El Teniente mine killed two workers and halted part of the operation; COMEX copper gained 1.04% to $6.7615/lb before easing back on Tuesday. Silver, meanwhile, slipped below $61 as precious metals marked time ahead of Wednesday's US CPI. Here are the levels, the supply story and the scenarios.
placeholder
Gold Price Analysis Today | Forex Gold Analysis | XAU/USD Analysis - October 13, 2026Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 13, 2026. Read on for the details.
Author  Mitrade
17 hours ago
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 13, 2026. Read on for the details.
placeholder
US September CPI Preview: Inflation May Heat Up, How Will US Stocks, Dollar and Gold React?The U.S. will release its September CPI data on Wednesday (October 14) Eastern Time, which will be one of the most important inflation reports ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 27-28
Author  TradingKey
17 hours ago
The U.S. will release its September CPI data on Wednesday (October 14) Eastern Time, which will be one of the most important inflation reports ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 27-28
Related Instrument
goTop
quote