Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD trades mildly lower and closes a losing week after US PCE figures

Source Fxstreet
  • The XAU/USD experiences a slight decrease, holding slightly above $2,018 with a minor pullback.
  • Key indicators such as RSI and MACD demonstrate a subdued buying momentum, as bulls consolidate December’s rally.

On Friday's session, the XAU/USD was seen trading at $2,018, presenting a slight decline of 0.08% and closing a 0.55% weekly loss. After reaching a level of $2,135 in December, buyers have been largely taking a pause, suggesting a neutral to a bullish outlook on the daily chart. Despite some momentum observed in the four-hour chart, the indicators remain relatively weak.

In addition, the USD recovery fueled by markets adjusting their bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) due to the US economy showing resilience is pushing the metal lower. On Friday, soft Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures from December from the US didn’t fuel a significant reaction to the market expectations on the Fed which meets next week. As for now, markets pushed the start of the easing cycle to May from March but the Fed's tone may change those expectations.

XAU/USD levels to watch

The technical indicators on the daily chart, specifically the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the position of the metal regarding its 20, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) paint a diverse picture. Despite the RSI showing a negative slope and currently residing in negative territory, the price manages to stay above the 20, 100, and 200-day SMAs. This is indicative of bullish standing in the broader time frame, and the recent pullback could be explained by the bulls taking a breather after pushing the price to a high of $2,135 in December.

Drilling down to the narrower four-hour chart, the momentum indicators present weak yet existent bullish undertones. The four-hour RSI shows a negative slope but is currently in positive territory, while the four-hour Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to produce flat red bars, again suggesting a hold on bearish momentum.

XAU/USD daily chart

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Hurricane Isaias has shut in a quarter of Gulf oil output — can WTI clear $92 before Thursday's EIA report?WTI trades at $90.80 after rebounding roughly 3% from Wednesday's $87.96 low as Hurricane Isaias — the Atlantic season's first — forces producers to shut in about 25% of US Gulf of Mexico output. Brent holds at $103.41. The first official read on the disruption arrives with the EIA weekly petroleum report on Thursday 15 October — here are the key levels and both scenarios.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 09, Fri
WTI trades at $90.80 after rebounding roughly 3% from Wednesday's $87.96 low as Hurricane Isaias — the Atlantic season's first — forces producers to shut in about 25% of US Gulf of Mexico output. Brent holds at $103.41. The first official read on the disruption arrives with the EIA weekly petroleum report on Thursday 15 October — here are the key levels and both scenarios.
placeholder
US September CPI preview: inflation set to hit 3.7% — will the Fed hike in December?US September CPI lands Wednesday with headline inflation seen at 3.7% y/y and core at 0.2% m/m. December hike odds sit near 70% — here are the scenarios, the calendar and the key levels.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 10, Sat
US September CPI lands Wednesday with headline inflation seen at 3.7% y/y and core at 0.2% m/m. December hike odds sit near 70% — here are the scenarios, the calendar and the key levels.
placeholder
Gold posts first weekly gain in three weeks — can $4,200 hold through CPI?Spot gold closed at $4,194.645, up 1.47% — its first weekly gain in three weeks — and COMEX futures settled back above $4,200 at $4,220.30. Here are the drivers, the levels and the scenarios into Wednesday's CPI.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 10, Sat
Spot gold closed at $4,194.645, up 1.47% — its first weekly gain in three weeks — and COMEX futures settled back above $4,200 at $4,220.30. Here are the drivers, the levels and the scenarios into Wednesday's CPI.
placeholder
Brent swings $105.63 to $102.33 as Gulf risk meets an 'energy ceasefire' — can $100 hold into CPI?Brent spiked to $105.63 in Asian trade on fresh Middle East supply incidents, then reversed to $102.33 after the US announced a Russia-Ukraine 'energy ceasefire' and 300,000+ tonnes of Russian diesel headed to global markets; WTI fell through $90. Here are the drivers, the levels and the scenarios into Wednesday's US CPI.
Author  Irene Q.
22 hours ago
Brent spiked to $105.63 in Asian trade on fresh Middle East supply incidents, then reversed to $102.33 after the US announced a Russia-Ukraine 'energy ceasefire' and 300,000+ tonnes of Russian diesel headed to global markets; WTI fell through $90. Here are the drivers, the levels and the scenarios into Wednesday's US CPI.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote