Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD rally stalls near $23 as focus shifts to US core PCE data

Source Fxstreet
  • Silver price faces some pressure while attempting to extend rally above $23.
  • The market mood is downbeat as investors await the core PCE price index data for December.
  • Strong GDP numbers and stubborn inflation data could allow Fed to maintain a hawkish interest rate stance.

Silver price (XAG/USD) struggles to extend upside above the crucial resistance of $23.00. The white metal turns sideways as investors shift focus towards the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

S&P500 futures have posted significant losses in the European session, portraying a sharp decline in the risk-appetite of the market participants. The US Dollar Index (DXY) aims to recapture almost six-week high of 103.82 as safe-haven demand improves.

The US Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, released on Thursday, indicated the economy grew at a robust pace of 3.3%. This has escalated upside risks to price pressures.

Meanwhile, investors await the US core PCE price index data. Investors have anticipated that the annual underlying inflation grew at a slower pace of 3.0% against reading of 3.2% in November. Monthly core PCE data is anticipated to rise by 0.2% after increasing by 0.1%.

A combination of stubborn inflation data and upbeat economic prospects would allow Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers to stick to their hawkish interest rate stance atleast for the first-half of 2024.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price attempts to deliver a breakout of the Descending Triangle chart pattern formed on a four-hour scale. The downward-sloping trendline of the aforementioned chart pattern is plotted from 3 December 2023 high at $25.92 while the horizontal support is placed from 13 November 2023 low at $21.88. The asset has stabilized above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $22.73.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) aims to stabilize into the 60.00-80.00 range. A bullish momentum would appear if the RSI (14) manages to do so.

Silver four-hour chart

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
Author  Mitrade
Sep 28, Mon
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
placeholder
Nvidia's $150 billion buyback landed — and the AI sector fell anyway. That's the signal worth tradingNvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 06: 31
Nvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
placeholder
The 30-year Treasury just hit a 22-year high — and the bond market is not pricing the Fed, it is pricing the deficitThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.56% on 28 September, the highest since June 2004, while the 10-year reached 5.24% and the 20-year 5.60%. The curve has steepened roughly 30bp in eight sessions even as October hike odds sit at 70.3%. That gap is the story: the long end is repricing fiscal and inflation risk, not policy. With PCE on Wednesday and payrolls on Friday, here is what the long end is really saying.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 07: 08
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.56% on 28 September, the highest since June 2004, while the 10-year reached 5.24% and the 20-year 5.60%. The curve has steepened roughly 30bp in eight sessions even as October hike odds sit at 70.3%. That gap is the story: the long end is repricing fiscal and inflation risk, not policy. With PCE on Wednesday and payrolls on Friday, here is what the long end is really saying.
placeholder
【Daily Brief】30-year Treasury tops 5.59%, S&P 500 slips to 7,670 and gold holds $4,180 — PCE lands tonightThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Author  Suzie
3 hours ago
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote