Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD stays firm above $29 amid firm Fed rate-cut hopes

Source Fxstreet
  • Silver price holds the crucial support of $29.00 as Fed rate-cut bets surge.
  • The expectations for Fed rate-cut increase as progress in the US disinflation process has resumed.
  • Investors shift focus to the preliminary US S&P Global PMIs for June.

Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground above the crucial support of $29.00 in Wednesday’s New York session. The white metal finds buyers amid growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting.

The expectations for the Fed to begin unwinding its restrictive monetary policy framework rise due to a higher-than-expected United States (US) decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and slower than forecasted growth in Retail Sales data for May. May’s data showed that progress in the disinflation process has resumed, and consumers cut heavily on discretionary spending as high inflation and interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have reduced the purchasing power of households.

Meanwhile, the market sentiment remains quiet as US markets are closed on Wednesday on account of Juneteenth. The US Dollar Index (DXY) edges down to near 105.20.

This week, investors will focus on the preliminary US S&P Global PMIs data for June, which will be published on Friday. The agency is expected to show a decline in the Composite PMI due to weakness in manufacturing as well as the service sector.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price trades in a Falling Channel chart pattern in which each pullback is considered a selling opportunity by market participants. The asset trades close to the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $29.40, suggesting a consolidating ahead.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating indecisiveness among market participants.

Silver four-hour chart

XAG/USD

Overview
Today last price 29.53
Today Daily Change -0.01
Today Daily Change % -0.03
Today daily open 29.54
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 30.29
Daily SMA50 29.03
Daily SMA100 26.54
Daily SMA200 24.84
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 29.68
Previous Daily Low 28.93
Previous Weekly High 30.26
Previous Weekly Low 28.66
Previous Monthly High 32.51
Previous Monthly Low 26.02
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 29.39
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 29.22
Daily Pivot Point S1 29.09
Daily Pivot Point S2 28.63
Daily Pivot Point S3 28.33
Daily Pivot Point R1 29.84
Daily Pivot Point R2 30.14
Daily Pivot Point R3 30.59

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Strong profits, falling shares: bank earnings day one meets a memory-chip rout — with CPI and ASML aheadGoldman Sachs blew past estimates (EPS $17.01 vs $13.09 expected, profit +33%) while JPMorgan missed ($5.75 vs $5.93) and Wells Fargo fell 3% — yet the S&P 500 finished flat at 7,805.45, pinned below its record close as a memory-chip rout (SOX −2.67%, Micron under $1,000) kept the pressure on. Tonight brings the week's decider: US September CPI at 8:30 ET, then Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and ASML before the open. Here are the levels, both cases, and the watch list.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 14, Wed
Goldman Sachs blew past estimates (EPS $17.01 vs $13.09 expected, profit +33%) while JPMorgan missed ($5.75 vs $5.93) and Wells Fargo fell 3% — yet the S&P 500 finished flat at 7,805.45, pinned below its record close as a memory-chip rout (SOX −2.67%, Micron under $1,000) kept the pressure on. Tonight brings the week's decider: US September CPI at 8:30 ET, then Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and ASML before the open. Here are the levels, both cases, and the watch list.
placeholder
US September CPI recap: inflation hits 3.7% as core runs hot — is an October Fed hike back on the table?September CPI landed hot: headline 3.7% y/y, core 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m. October hike odds jumped from ~22% to ~37% — yet the dollar faded to 101.74, gold closed higher and the S&P 500 fell 1.11%. Here is the full repricing, the levels and what to watch next.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 05: 52
September CPI landed hot: headline 3.7% y/y, core 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m. October hike odds jumped from ~22% to ~37% — yet the dollar faded to 101.74, gold closed higher and the S&P 500 fell 1.11%. Here is the full repricing, the levels and what to watch next.
placeholder
Gold defends $4,100 as BofA targets a break below $4,000 — why the Middle East bid is missingSpot gold flushed to $4,099.89, a whisker above October's $4,090 low, then rebounded to close at $4,138.25 (+0.82%) — even as US CPI ran hot. Bank of America sees gold below $4,000 within three months, citing shrinking demand and official-sector selling. Here are the levels, the drivers and what would flip the script.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 06: 57
Spot gold flushed to $4,099.89, a whisker above October's $4,090 low, then rebounded to close at $4,138.25 (+0.82%) — even as US CPI ran hot. Bank of America sees gold below $4,000 within three months, citing shrinking demand and official-sector selling. Here are the levels, the drivers and what would flip the script.
placeholder
Gold Price Analysis Today | Forex Gold Analysis | XAU/USD Analysis - October 15, 2026Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 15, 2026. Read on for the details.
Author  Mitrade
24 mins ago
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 15, 2026. Read on for the details.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote