Silver Price Analysis: Establishes another lower low as downtrend extends
Source Fxstreet
- Silver posts another lower low as it continues its steady decline.
- The 50-day SMA, however, could provide an obstacle to further weakness.
- The RSI momentum indicator is converging bullishly with price.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades almost 2.0% lower on Thursday after the release of US factory-gate inflation data.
The precious metal has broken below $29.04 (June 11 low) and thereby posted a lower low at $28.85, the low of the day.
The sequence of lower lows and lower highs witnessed since the May highs suggests Silver is in a short-term downtrend, which given “the trend is your friend” is expected to extend.
Silver 4-hour Chart
A break below $28.85 (June 13 low) would confirm another lower low, continuing the bearish sequence.
There is a chance Silver could fall to an initial target at $28.21, the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of the height of the range that unfolded in the second half of May, extrapolated lower. This is the usual method used by technical analysts for establishing targets after breakouts from ranges.
The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $28.93, however, could provide a barrier to further downside.
That said, more bearishness could still see Silver reach as low as $27.19, the second target at the 100% extrapolation of the height of the range lower.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing bullish convergence with price since the June 4 low. Although price has gone on to make progressively lower lows, RSI has not. The non-correlation indicates a lack of bearish momentum and increases the risk of Silver making a pullback or a recovery.
It would take a close above $31.00 to bring the short-term downtrend into doubt. A move above the $31.55 lower high would suggest the possibility of a recovery to the range high at $32.51, and a reversal of the short-term trend too.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
