WTI hits highest since late October as Iran unrest fuels risk premium
- WTI extends its rebound to a fifth straight day, trading at the highest level since October.
- Rising geopolitical risk linked to Iran unrest keeps oil markets on edge.
- Surprise EIA crude stock build fails to cool bullish momentum.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) extends its rebound on Wednesday, rising for a fifth straight day as escalating unrest in Iran fuels a fresh geopolitical risk premium. At the time of writing, WTI trades around $61.50 per barrel, its highest level since October 27, with prices up nearly 5% so far this week.
Markets remain uneasy about potential supply disruptions amid nationwide protests in Iran, which have revived fears of possible United States (US) involvement and the risk of wider regional instability.
Risks of possible US military action in Iran have risen after US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING — TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!… HELP IS ON ITS WAY,” adding that all meetings with Iranian officials are cancelled until the violence ends. Trump has previously indicated that military action remains an option if Tehran continues its crackdown.
Markets are closely watching further developments on the Iran-US front. On the data side, the latest report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) did little to temper bullish momentum, even as it showed a surprise 3.391 million-barrel build in crude inventories, against expectations for a 2.2 million-barrel draw and following the previous week’s 3.831 million-barrel decline.
The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, published on Tuesday, points to a softer medium-term backdrop for crude prices. The agency said it expects global oil prices to decline in 2026 as worldwide production exceeds demand, pushing global inventories higher. According to the EIA, inventories are projected to continue rising into 2027, albeit at a slower pace.
The EIA forecasts Brent crude will average $56 per barrel in 2026, around 19% lower than in 2025, before easing further to an average of $54 per barrel in 2027.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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