Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD languishes near two-week low, seems vulnerable to slide further
Source Fxstreet
- Silver drops to a two-week low on Wednesday, albeit manages to hold above the 38.2% Fibo.
- The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any further downfall.
- Any attempted recovery might confront a stiff barrier and remain capped near the $25.00 mark.
Silver (XAG/USD) oscillates in a narrow trading band through the first half of the European session and consolidates its recent losses to a two-week low touched earlier this Wednesday. The white metal currently trades just below the mid-$24.00s and seems vulnerable to prolonging its recent pullback from the YTD peak touched last week.
That said, mixed technical indicators on the daily chart and failure to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-March rally, warrant some caution for aggressive bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the $24.30 support zone before positioning for a further depreciating move. The XAG/USD might then weaken further below the $24.00 round-figure mark and test the 50% Fibo. level near the $23.85 zone.
The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag the white metal to the $23.40 confluence, comprising the 61.8% Fibo. and the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), en route to the $23.00 round-figure mark. Failure to defend the latter might expose the next relevant support near the $22.45 region.
On the flip side, any attempted recovery is likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the $25.00 psychological mark. That said, a sustained strength beyond the said handle might trigger a bout of a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD to the $25.50 region en route to the YTD peak, around the $25.75-$25.80 region. This is followed by the December 2023 swing high, just ahead of the $26.00 round figure, which if cleared will set the stage for additional near-term gains.
Silver daily chart
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
