Gold consolidates amid easing yields, soft US Dollar and geopolitical caution

• Gold holds steady near $3,340 on Tuesday, as markets assess the Trump-Zelenskyy summit.
• The US Dollar and Treasury yields are easing, providing modest support to Gold as markets turn their focus to upcoming Fed commentary and the Jackson Hole Symposium.
• Technically, XAU/USD remains confined within a $3,330-$3,370 range, with a falling wedge formation hinting at bullish breakout potential if the $3,370 resistance is cleared.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading with a steady bias on Tuesday, recovering modestly from an overnight dip as investors digest Monday's White House summit between US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and key European leaders. While the talks offered a glimmer of diplomatic progress toward ending the war in Ukraine, the absence of a concrete ceasefire has kept geopolitical uncertainty elevated, helping the yellow metal retain its safe-haven appeal.

At the time of writing, the yellow metal is hovering near $3,342 during the European session. A softer US Dollar (USD) is lending mild support to XAU/USD, while US Treasury yields are edging lower after three straight days of gains, helping to keep downside pressure on the non-yielding bullion in check. Looking ahead, analysts see the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium as the next major catalyst for precious metals. With markets increasingly pricing in a potential interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September meeting, any dovish policy signals could reinforce demand for Gold and add downward pressure on the Greenback.

While markets welcomed signs of diplomatic coordination, the Trump-Zelenskyy summit offered little in the way of immediate breakthroughs, keeping investors on edge. Leaders pledged continued military and economic support for Ukraine, with talks centering around a proposed “coalition of the willing” to oversee future defense arrangements. President Trump revealed he had already spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin and signaled early preparations for a potential trilateral summit. “It would be two presidents, plus myself,” he noted, referring to a possible meeting with both Zelenskyy and Putin. Trump also emphasized that the United States would work closely with European partners to establish long-term security guarantees for Ukraine.

Market movers: Dollar, yields pull back as focus turns to Fed Minutes

• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is edging lower after modest gains on Monday. The index is trading near 98.00, retreating from a four-day high of 98.32 hit during Asian trading hours.
• US Treasury yields are easing slightly on Tuesday. The benchmark 10-year yield is currently at 4.326% and the 30-year at 4.922%, both retreating from two-week highs reached on Monday.
• S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed the United States' long-term sovereign credit rating at AA+ with a stable outlook. The agency noted that recent increases in tariff revenue are helping to offset fiscal pressures caused by expanded government spending and earlier tax cuts. While fiscal challenges persist, the stable outlook reflects confidence in the US economy’s resilience.
• UBS has increased its Gold price outlook, forecasting $3,600 per ounce (up from $3,500) by the end of March 2026, and now expects prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by June and September 2026. This upward revision is rooted in mounting US macroeconomic risks, accelerating de-dollarization, and robust demand from ETFs and central banks. The bank anticipates global Gold demand rising 3% to 4,760 metric tons in 2025, the highest level since 2011
• Goldman Sachs also maintains a bullish long-term outlook on Gold, projecting prices could reach $3,700 by end‑2025 and $4,000 by mid‑2026, citing sustained demand from “conviction buyers” including central banks and long-term investors.
• The latest US economic data offers a mixed macro signal but remains consistent with a moderating growth narrative enough to keep rate cut expectations alive, though not urgent. Retail Sales came in firm, pointing to resilient consumer demand, but a dip in consumer sentiment and rising long-term inflation expectations suggest households are becoming more cautious. Markets have responded by slightly paring back expectations for aggressive easing, yet a September rate cut remains the dominant base case.
• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in an 83% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September 17 meeting. However, a Reuters poll published on August 15 reveals a more cautious stance among economists. Out of 110 surveyed, 67 expect a quarter-point cut next month, up from 53% in July, while just one forecasts a 50 basis point move. The remaining 42 economists see the Fed holding steady. While over 60% of respondents expect one or two cuts in total this year, there was no consensus on where the federal funds rate will stand by the end of 2025.
• Tuesday’s US economic calendar is relatively light, with Housing Starts being the only notable release. No major market-moving data is scheduled later in the day, though traders will keep an eye on remarks from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision of the Board of Governors Michelle Bowman for any fresh policy cues. Focus will turn to Wednesday’s release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which could provide further clarity on the Fed’s policy outlook.

Technical analysis: Gold consolidates in a narrow band, breakout hinges on $3,370

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,342 on Tuesday, largely stuck within a well-defined range between $3,330 and $3,370 since last week. This horizontal consolidation is highlighted by repeated rejection at both ends, reflecting a lack of strong conviction among traders ahead of key macro events.

At the same time, the 4-hour chart shows a falling wedge formation developing within this broader sideways range, a chart pattern that typically signals potential bullish breakout risk. The price remains below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $3,348, keeping near-term bias neutral.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just below the neutral 50 level, reflecting a lack of strong directional momentum for now.

A decisive break above $3,370 and wedge resistance could spark fresh upside momentum toward $3,400 psychological level. On the downside, a sustained move below $3,330 could expose the next support at $3,300, with further downside risk if that level gives way.