GBP/USD climbs despite Trump’s auto tariffs, markets bet on UK exemption

Source Fxstreet
  • Sterling gains 0.35% as high-beta currencies benefit from improved sentiment despite initial tariff shock.
  • Trump enacts 25% auto tariffs effective April 2; UK says talks underway to secure exemption.
  • US data mixed with jobless claims near estimates, GDP revised up, and home sales still in decline.

The Pound Sterling rises during the North American session, against the Greenback even though the US President Donald Trump enacted automotive tariffs on all cars made outside of the United States (US). Initially, risk appetite deteriorated, but it has improved. Therefore, high-beta currencies like the Sterling advance, with GBP/USD trading near 1.2930, up 0.35%.

GBP/USD rises as risk appetite rebounds, while UK seeks carve-out from new US trade measures

On Wednesday, Trump signed an executive order adding 25% duties on imported automobiles, effective on April 2. He said that he would announce additional tariffs next week.

This triggered a reaction worldwide, including in the UK. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said that they are working with the White House to secure an exemption from US auto tariffs.

Data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders revealed that the US is Britain’s second-largest car export market, after the European Union.

Aside from this, US economic data revealed that the number or Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose below estimates of 225K, increased by 224K in the week ending March 22. Other data showed that the GDP for the last quarter of 2024 was confirmed at 2.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), up from 1.9%, slightly below estimates of 2.4% and Pending Home Sales dipped -3.6% YoY in February, though improved compared to January’s -5.2% plunge.

Ahead this week, the UK economic docket will feature Retail Sales data. Across the pond, investors eye speeches by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, alongside the release of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Even though the GBP/USD resumed its uptrend, it remains shy of cracking the current week’s peak of 1.2973, which could set the pair to challenge the 1.3000 figure. Price action suggests that buyers are losing some steam, as it continues to print back-to-back lower lows but a daily close above the 1.2950 would be crucial for buyers, if they would like to test higher prices.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish and aims up but lies below the latest through an indication of buyers’ lack of strength.

On the flip side, if GBP/USD drops below 1.2900, it paves the path to challenge the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2801.

British Pound PRICE This week

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   0.25% -0.25% 1.09% -0.28% -0.48% -0.16% -0.03%
EUR -0.25%   -0.60% 0.29% -0.49% -0.74% -0.37% -0.24%
GBP 0.25% 0.60%   1.33% -0.51% -0.17% 0.25% 0.27%
JPY -1.09% -0.29% -1.33%   -1.36% -1.56% -1.20% -1.10%
CAD 0.28% 0.49% 0.51% 1.36%   -0.13% 0.12% 0.26%
AUD 0.48% 0.74% 0.17% 1.56% 0.13%   0.39% 0.53%
NZD 0.16% 0.37% -0.25% 1.20% -0.12% -0.39%   0.20%
CHF 0.03% 0.24% -0.27% 1.10% -0.26% -0.53% -0.20%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
【Daily Brief】30-year Treasury tops 5.59%, S&P 500 slips to 7,670 and gold holds $4,180 — PCE lands tonightThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Author  Suzie
Sep 30, Wed
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
placeholder
Gold falls to near $4,150 as higher Treasury yields, oil prices outweigh softer PCE inflationGold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,150 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by elevated US Treasury bond yields. Traders await the US September employment data for fresh impetus, which will be released later on Friday. 
Author  FXStreet
Oct 01, Thu
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,150 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by elevated US Treasury bond yields. Traders await the US September employment data for fresh impetus, which will be released later on Friday. 
placeholder
United States Dollar Index sits near March 2025 highs, above 102.00 ahead of US NFPThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts buyers for the fifth straight day and climbs back above the 102.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday.
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 02: 51
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts buyers for the fifth straight day and climbs back above the 102.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday.
placeholder
WTI Price Forecast: Dips to $91.50 as Middle East jitters limit lossesWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Friday, snapping a two-day winning streak and stalling the previous day's recovery from the vicinity of a nearly four-week low.
Author  FXStreet
20 hours ago
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Friday, snapping a two-day winning streak and stalling the previous day's recovery from the vicinity of a nearly four-week low.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote