GBP/USD climbs despite Trump’s auto tariffs, markets bet on UK exemption

Source Fxstreet
  • Sterling gains 0.35% as high-beta currencies benefit from improved sentiment despite initial tariff shock.
  • Trump enacts 25% auto tariffs effective April 2; UK says talks underway to secure exemption.
  • US data mixed with jobless claims near estimates, GDP revised up, and home sales still in decline.

The Pound Sterling rises during the North American session, against the Greenback even though the US President Donald Trump enacted automotive tariffs on all cars made outside of the United States (US). Initially, risk appetite deteriorated, but it has improved. Therefore, high-beta currencies like the Sterling advance, with GBP/USD trading near 1.2930, up 0.35%.

GBP/USD rises as risk appetite rebounds, while UK seeks carve-out from new US trade measures

On Wednesday, Trump signed an executive order adding 25% duties on imported automobiles, effective on April 2. He said that he would announce additional tariffs next week.

This triggered a reaction worldwide, including in the UK. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said that they are working with the White House to secure an exemption from US auto tariffs.

Data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders revealed that the US is Britain’s second-largest car export market, after the European Union.

Aside from this, US economic data revealed that the number or Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose below estimates of 225K, increased by 224K in the week ending March 22. Other data showed that the GDP for the last quarter of 2024 was confirmed at 2.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), up from 1.9%, slightly below estimates of 2.4% and Pending Home Sales dipped -3.6% YoY in February, though improved compared to January’s -5.2% plunge.

Ahead this week, the UK economic docket will feature Retail Sales data. Across the pond, investors eye speeches by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, alongside the release of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Even though the GBP/USD resumed its uptrend, it remains shy of cracking the current week’s peak of 1.2973, which could set the pair to challenge the 1.3000 figure. Price action suggests that buyers are losing some steam, as it continues to print back-to-back lower lows but a daily close above the 1.2950 would be crucial for buyers, if they would like to test higher prices.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish and aims up but lies below the latest through an indication of buyers’ lack of strength.

On the flip side, if GBP/USD drops below 1.2900, it paves the path to challenge the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2801.

British Pound PRICE This week

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   0.25% -0.25% 1.09% -0.28% -0.48% -0.16% -0.03%
EUR -0.25%   -0.60% 0.29% -0.49% -0.74% -0.37% -0.24%
GBP 0.25% 0.60%   1.33% -0.51% -0.17% 0.25% 0.27%
JPY -1.09% -0.29% -1.33%   -1.36% -1.56% -1.20% -1.10%
CAD 0.28% 0.49% 0.51% 1.36%   -0.13% 0.12% 0.26%
AUD 0.48% 0.74% 0.17% 1.56% 0.13%   0.39% 0.53%
NZD 0.16% 0.37% -0.25% 1.20% -0.12% -0.39%   0.20%
CHF 0.03% 0.24% -0.27% 1.10% -0.26% -0.53% -0.20%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
US dollar clings to nine-week lows near 98.4 as Brent nears $100 and the yen hits a seven-month high — five events to watch todayThe dollar is pinned near nine-week lows even after a blockbuster jobs report, as an oil spike toward $100, a surging yen and China's reflation data crowd the driver's seat. Five key events to watch today: Brent at $99.46, USD/JPY at 154, China CPI/PPI, PBOC gold buying, and Thursday's PPI / Friday's CPI ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC.
Author  Eric Nkando
Sep 09, Wed
The dollar is pinned near nine-week lows even after a blockbuster jobs report, as an oil spike toward $100, a surging yen and China's reflation data crowd the driver's seat. Five key events to watch today: Brent at $99.46, USD/JPY at 154, China CPI/PPI, PBOC gold buying, and Thursday's PPI / Friday's CPI ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC.
placeholder
US August CPI lands tonight: after a 5.4% PPI shock, will the Fed hike on September 16?US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 11, Fri
US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, with core PPI at 4.6%. Traders have pushed the odds of a 25bp Fed hike on September 15-16 to around 70%. Tonight's CPI is the last major inflation print before the decision — here is the full calendar, the consensus numbers, and what a hot versus cool reading would mean for the dollar, yields, gold and stocks.
placeholder
Brent tests $108 as a key export pipeline stays shut — can the rally clear $110?Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.
Author  Irene Q.
19 hours ago
Brent crude rose 2.55% to $106.97 and WTI 2.32% to $102.30 as a major regional export pipeline remained offline with no restart timeline. Front-month backwardation has widened to $5.53 from $3.84 a week ago, European gas is at its highest since December 2022, and one analyst sees $119.48 if talks stall.
placeholder
Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
Author  Suzie
19 hours ago
A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
placeholder
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $63.50 amid Fed hike bets, higher oil pricesSilver price (XAG/USD) loses its gains from the previous day, trading around $63.50 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. Non-yielding Silver is currently facing significant headwinds driven by rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations for the upcoming September decision.
Author  FXStreet
16 hours ago
Silver price (XAG/USD) loses its gains from the previous day, trading around $63.50 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. Non-yielding Silver is currently facing significant headwinds driven by rising Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations for the upcoming September decision.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote