AUD/USD plummets to fresh four-month lows below 0.6400

Source Fxstreet
  • The US Dollar strengthened ahead of the weekly close on the back of mixed data.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its decision on monetary policy next week.
  • AUD/USD fell to its lowest since August, maintaining the bearish pressure.

The US Dollar (USD) soared in the last trading session of the week, with the AUD/USD pair falling towards 0.6380, a level last seen in August. Without data releases in Australia, the market focused on the United States (US) macroeconomic developments.

Mixed employment figures initially weighed on the USD, but a better-than-anticipated preliminary estimate of the US Consumer Sentiment Index flipped the coin. The index unexpectedly improved to 74 in December from 71.8 in the previous month, surpassing the expected 73.

Beforehand, the US published the November Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report. The headline figure showed 227K new jobs were added in the month, higher than the 200K anticipated by market analysts. Also, the Unemployment Rate ticked marginally higher, from 4.1% previously to the expected 4.2%.

The NFP report also showed that the Labor Force Participation Rate edged lower to 62.5%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, held steady at 4%, coming in above the market forecast of 3.9%. The uptick in inflationary pressures fueled bets of an upcoming December rate cut, now at roughly 83% from 71% on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch Toll.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will have a monetary policy meeting next week. The central bank will announce its decision, and it is widely anticipated that interest rates will be kept on hold. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) has been steady at 4.35% since November 2023, when the RBA delivered its latest interest rate hike.

Growth in Australia has been tepid, and RBA’s Governor Michele Bullock should take note of that. The earliest a rate cut is expected, however, is February 2025, with mounting bets it could be delayed up to March.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook

The Australian Dollar (AUD) pressures its multi-month lows against the USD. The AUD/USD pair trades around 0.6370, with the next support level at 0.6360, the April 2024 monthly low, followed by 0.6347, the low posted in August. Beyond the latter, market players will likely target the 0.6300 mark.

The former weekly low at 0.6398 provides resistance ahead of the 0.6430 price zone.

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
Author  Mitrade
Sep 28, Mon
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
placeholder
【Daily Brief】30-year Treasury tops 5.59%, S&P 500 slips to 7,670 and gold holds $4,180 — PCE lands tonightThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Author  Suzie
Sep 30, Wed
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
placeholder
Gold falls to near $4,150 as higher Treasury yields, oil prices outweigh softer PCE inflationGold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,150 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by elevated US Treasury bond yields. Traders await the US September employment data for fresh impetus, which will be released later on Friday. 
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 01: 26
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,150 during the early Asian session on Thursday, pressured by elevated US Treasury bond yields. Traders await the US September employment data for fresh impetus, which will be released later on Friday. 
placeholder
United States Dollar Index sits near March 2025 highs, above 102.00 ahead of US NFPThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts buyers for the fifth straight day and climbs back above the 102.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday.
Author  FXStreet
11 hours ago
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts buyers for the fifth straight day and climbs back above the 102.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote