AUD/USD Price Forecast: Falls back inside range signaling possible bearish reversal

Source Fxstreet
  • AUD/USD stalls at upside resistance and reverses lower, falling back inside its range. 
  • It is threatening a short-term trend reversal and MACD is about to cross below its signal line. 

AUD/USD reverses and starts falling after what appears to be a false breakout above the top of the range. 

AUD/USD Daily Chart 

The Aussie pair has now started falling back inside the range. It is possible this could be the start of a new short-term downtrend that might take AUD/USD back down towards the range lows in the 0.63s, however, it is still too early to say with any confidence.  

The blue Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is threatening to cross below the red signal line and if it does that would add further evidence to the argument that AUD/USD is reversing trend. 

AUD/USD may have formed a Measured Move pattern during August and September as it rose from the bottom to the top of the range. Such patterns resemble zig-zags and lengths of waves A and C are similar or related by Fibonacci.  

The Aussie pair reached an initial upside target based on extrapolating wave A of the Measured Move higher by a 61.8% Fibonacci. This target lies at around 0.6115. This is further evidence the uptrend may have reached its zenith and a new downtrend is currently forming. For more confirmation price would have to break below the 0.6785 level (September 20 swing low). Such a move would be expected to reach an initial downside target of 0.6709, the level of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). 

Until then, there is still a risk the move down could stall and the uptrend resume, taking AUD/USD higher again. A break above the 0.6942 September 30 peak would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and target 0.6988 (14 February ‘23 swing high), followed by 0.7156 in a bullish case (2 February ‘23 high).

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Bitcoin CME gaps at $35,000, $27,000 and $21,000, which one gets filled first?Prioritize filling the $27,000 gap and even try higher.
Author  FXStreet
Aug 22, 2023
Prioritize filling the $27,000 gap and even try higher.
placeholder
Natural Gas sinks to pivotal level as China’s demand slumpsNatural Gas price (XNG/USD) edges lower and sinks to $2.56 on Monday, extending its losing streak for the fifth day in a row. The move comes on the back of China cutting its Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) imports after prices rose above $3.0 in June. It
Author  FXStreet
Jul 01, 2024
Natural Gas price (XNG/USD) edges lower and sinks to $2.56 on Monday, extending its losing streak for the fifth day in a row. The move comes on the back of China cutting its Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) imports after prices rose above $3.0 in June. It
placeholder
Pinduoduo Earnings Incoming: Morgan Stanley Sees Long-Term Profit Potential​Insights – On November 21, Chinese e-commerce giant Pinduoduo (PDD) will release its Q3 2024 earnings.
Author  Mitrade
Nov 20, 2024
​Insights – On November 21, Chinese e-commerce giant Pinduoduo (PDD) will release its Q3 2024 earnings.
placeholder
Bitcoin briefly loses 2025 gains as crypto plunges over the weekend.Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant. The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year. Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus. Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses. Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Author  Mitrade
Nov 17, 2025
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant. The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year. Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus. Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses. Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
placeholder
WTI Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable near $90.50 as technical breakdown comes into playWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – plummets to a nearly two-week trough during the Asian session on Wednesday in reaction to news that the US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire.
Author  FXStreet
Yesterday 01: 48
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – plummets to a nearly two-week trough during the Asian session on Wednesday in reaction to news that the US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote