EUR/JPY struggles near mid-155.00s, lowest since August ahead of BoJ meeting this week

Source Fxstreet
  • EUR/JPY drifts lower for the second straight day and drops to over a one-month low.
  • Hawkish BoJ expectations continue to underpin the JPY and exert downward pressure.
  • The Euro draws support from a weaker USD and should limit losses ahead of the BoJ. 

The EUR/JPY cross attracts sellers for the second straight day on Monday and drops to its lowest level since early August, below mid-155.00s during the Asian session. The downtick is sponsored by the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the Japanese Yen (JPY), though lacks follow-through buying ahead of the crucial Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting later this week. 

The recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials suggested that the central bank will raise interest rates further by the end of this year, which, in turn, is seen underpinning the JPY and exerting pressure on the EUR/JPY cross. In fact, BoJ board member Junko Nakagawa said earlier last week that the central bank will raise interest rates further if the economy and inflation move in line with its forecasts. Furthermore, BoJ board member Naoki Tamura said last Thursday that the central bank must push up short-term rates to at least around 1% through fiscal 2026 to stably achieve the 2% inflation target.

This marks a big divergence in comparison to the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision last week to cut interest rates for the second time this cycle and indicates a declining path for borrowing costs in the months ahead. This is seen as another factor behind the shared currency's relative underperformance and contributes to the offered tone surrounding the EUR/JPY cross. That said, reports that the ECB  policymakers see an interest rate cut in October as unlikely, barring a major deterioration in the outlook for growth, along with sustained US Dollar (USD), assist the Euro in gaining some positive traction.

Apart from this, a generally positive tone across the global equity markets keeps a lid on any further appreciation for the safe-haven JPY and should cap the upside for the EUR/JPY cross. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bearish bets and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the key central bank event risk – the highly-anticipated BoJ policy decision on Friday. The key focus will be on the BoJ's policy outlook, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term JPY price dynamics and help market participants in determining the next leg of a directional move for the currency.

Economic Indicator

BoJ Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY.

Read more.

Next release: Fri Sep 20, 2024 03:00

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: -

Previous: 0.15%

Source: Bank of Japan

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Today’s Market Recap: U.S. Stocks Rebound as Nasdaq Gains 1.11%, Memory Chip Stocks Rally, SanDisk Jumps 5.5%U.S. stocks rebounded on Monday, October 19, following a sharp sell-off in AI infrastructure stocks last week, lifting the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500.At the clo
Author  TradingKey
Yesterday 01: 25
U.S. stocks rebounded on Monday, October 19, following a sharp sell-off in AI infrastructure stocks last week, lifting the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500.At the clo
placeholder
Gold Price Analysis Today | Forex Gold Analysis | XAU/USD Analysis - October 20, 2026Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 20, 2026. Read on for the details.
Author  Mitrade
Yesterday 03: 17
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 20, 2026. Read on for the details.
placeholder
Dollar presses 102 as the 10-year yield sits at 5.14% — and October hike odds are only 17%The dollar index closed at 101.99 (+0.20%) on Monday after briefly topping 102.07, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% and the 2-year hit 4.774% — yet futures price only about a 17% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, versus roughly 90% for December. The driver is a global bond selloff, not a Fed repricing: France's 10-year OAT jumped to 4.84% ~ 4.94% and the OAT-Bund spread widened to 140 ~ 146bp. Here are the levels, the cross-asset read-through and what to watch.
Author  Irene Q.
21 hours ago
The dollar index closed at 101.99 (+0.20%) on Monday after briefly topping 102.07, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% and the 2-year hit 4.774% — yet futures price only about a 17% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, versus roughly 90% for December. The driver is a global bond selloff, not a Fed repricing: France's 10-year OAT jumped to 4.84% ~ 4.94% and the OAT-Bund spread widened to 140 ~ 146bp. Here are the levels, the cross-asset read-through and what to watch.
placeholder
Netflix earnings land tonight: the $70 line that decides whether the AI rebound has legsNetflix reports Q3 after the US close on October 20 with the stock at $69.85 (-0.96%), just below the $70 round number and far from its 52-week high of $124.86. Consensus looks for revenue near $12.87bn (+12%), EPS around $0.82 and a 33.2% operating margin, while options imply an 8.4% one-day move. With the Nasdaq up 1.11% and the SOX up 1.61% after an eight-day slide, the result is the first real test of the AI-led rebound. Here are the numbers, the $65 / $70 / $75 levels and the three checks that matter.
Author  Irene Q.
20 hours ago
Netflix reports Q3 after the US close on October 20 with the stock at $69.85 (-0.96%), just below the $70 round number and far from its 52-week high of $124.86. Consensus looks for revenue near $12.87bn (+12%), EPS around $0.82 and a 33.2% operating margin, while options imply an 8.4% one-day move. With the Nasdaq up 1.11% and the SOX up 1.61% after an eight-day slide, the result is the first real test of the AI-led rebound. Here are the numbers, the $65 / $70 / $75 levels and the three checks that matter.
placeholder
Tesla Q3 Earnings Preview: Can Auto Margins Stabilize? Wall Street’s Highest Price Target at $550Tesla (TSLA) will report its third-quarter 2026 financial results after the U.S. stock market close on October 21, Eastern Time, and host an earnings conference call at 17:30 that day. Th
Author  TradingKey
17 hours ago
Tesla (TSLA) will report its third-quarter 2026 financial results after the U.S. stock market close on October 21, Eastern Time, and host an earnings conference call at 17:30 that day. Th
Related Instrument
goTop
quote