USD/JPY Price Forecast: Makes lower lows as trend turns more bearish
Source Fxstreet
- USD/JPY has fallen to fresh lows at a key support level.
- The long-term uptrend has probably reversed as the pair continues to make lower lows.
USD/JPY continues sliding and makes a lower low at 140.36 on Friday, bottoming out at about the same level as the key December 2023 low – where it is expected to encounter firm support.
USD/JPY 4-hour Chart
The break below the August 5 low on September 11 crossed an important threshold for the pair. Taken together with the break below the major multi-year trendline at the beginning of August, it suggests a possibility the long-term uptrend has reversed. Given it is a principle of technical analysis that “the trend is your friend” such a reversal suggests the broad bias has shifted from being “bullish” to “bearish”.
If USD/JPY can make a daily close below the 140.25 December 2023 low, it would provide even more confirmatory evidence of a long-term trend reversal. Such a break might then see price fall to the next target at 137.24 (July 2023 low). It should be noted that the short and medium-term trends are already bearish.
USD/JPY is showing mild bullish convergence between the price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). At the September 11 low the RSI was in the oversold zone, now even though price has sunk even lower, the RSI has not.
This could be a sign that the move down lacks some bearish conviction and suggests a risk of a pull-back evolving. Given the other bearish signs on the chart, however, such a rebound if it materializes is likely to be temporary before the bear trend resumes and takes the pair to new lows.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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