EUR/USD: EUR drifts lower in payrolls aftermath – Scotiabank
Source Fxstreet
EUR/USD is drifting a little lower in quiet trade at the start of the week, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
ECB rate cut fully priced for Thursday
“There were no major data reports in the Eurozone this morning and EUR drift likely reflects a continuation of the USD correction seen as the dust settled around Friday US data.”
“Steady—so far—short-term EZ/US spreads (the 2Y gap is little changed around – 142bps this morning) suggest the EUR should remain supported on minor dips. A 25bps cut at Thursday’s ECB policy decision is fully priced in. Cautious guidance on the outlook might be modestly EUR-supportive.”
“A soft close Friday for the EUR leaves the daily chart tilting clearly negative via a bearish outside range session. Underlying trend signals remain bullish across the daily and weekly charts, however, which should help limit EUR losses in the short run at least. Weakness through last week’s low at 1.1025 may see a bit more drift to the mid/upper 1.09s. Resistance is 1.1075/85.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.
Silver breaks $64 as precious metals rebound — can gold hold the $4,280 line into the Fed decision?Silver has climbed back above $64 an ounce for the first time this week, leading a broad rebound across precious metals hours before the Federal Reserve delivers what is expected to be its first rate hike since 2023. Spot silver was last at $64.64, up 1.49% on the day, while gold reclaimed $4,300 and platinum and palladium both advanced. The question now is whether the bounce is a genuine turn — or a pause before the Fed's dot plot decides the next move.
Silver has climbed back above $64 an ounce for the first time this week, leading a broad rebound across precious metals hours before the Federal Reserve delivers what is expected to be its first rate hike since 2023. Spot silver was last at $64.64, up 1.49% on the day, while gold reclaimed $4,300 and platinum and palladium both advanced. The question now is whether the bounce is a genuine turn — or a pause before the Fed's dot plot decides the next move.
Bitcoin falls below $75,000 as the CLARITY Act fails in the Senate — what the vote means for cryptoThe US Senate blocked the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act in a 49-50 procedural vote, sending Bitcoin briefly below $75,000 — its biggest one-day drop since June. Ethereum fell more than 8%, Coinbase slid 10% and $75 billion of crypto market value evaporated. Here is what the vote was, why it failed, and the levels that matter now.
The US Senate blocked the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act in a 49-50 procedural vote, sending Bitcoin briefly below $75,000 — its biggest one-day drop since June. Ethereum fell more than 8%, Coinbase slid 10% and $75 billion of crypto market value evaporated. Here is what the vote was, why it failed, and the levels that matter now.
Dow drops 631 points as the Fed hikes — but futures are rebounding: what's next for US stocks?The Dow fell 631 points and the S&P 500 closed below 7,600 after the Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect more tightening. Asia-session futures are already recovering — here are the levels and analyst views that decide whether 7,500 holds.
The Dow fell 631 points and the S&P 500 closed below 7,600 after the Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect more tightening. Asia-session futures are already recovering — here are the levels and analyst views that decide whether 7,500 holds.
Dollar index tops 100 for the first time since July as the Fed's hawkish dot plot sinks inThe U.S. dollar index broke back above 100 for the first time since 31 July after the Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more increase this year. Here are the levels that matter for DXY, the currencies feeling it most, and what to watch next.
The U.S. dollar index broke back above 100 for the first time since 31 July after the Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023, with the dot plot showing 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more increase this year. Here are the levels that matter for DXY, the currencies feeling it most, and what to watch next.
Related Instrument
