CNY: Less pressure, but still weak – Commerzbank
Source Fxstreet
We forecast a stronger yuan path than previously expected given our new forecast of a weaker dollar. Nevertheless, we forecast USD/CNY to remain above the 7 mark to reflect our expectation that the yuan will remain weak in the coming quarters, Commerzbank’s FX strategist Tommy Wu notes.
USD/CNY to fall to 7.05 by mid-2025
“The yuan strengthened against the dollar in August along with other Asian currencies, as the markets repriced Fed rate cut expectations and US Treasury yields fell across the curve. The negative China-US yield spreads narrowed and alleviated pressures on the yuan. USD/CNY largely hovered around 7.26-7.28 in most of July and fell to below 7.15 in mid-August.”
“We have revised our USD/CNY forecast lower to reflect a weaker dollar in the medium term than previously expected. This is because we now expect six Fed rate cuts in the coming quarters instead of three at the time of the last forecast, and that the structural US growth advantage will be less pronounced near term.”
Still, we don’t expect the yuan to appreciate significantly because yield differentials between China and the US will likely remain negative, albeit getting narrower or closer to zero in the coming quarters. In all, we expect USD/CNY to fall to 7.05 by mid-2025. As we expect the US growth advantage will return in H2 2025 following a soft patch, and that the Fed will stop cutting rates by then, the USD will likely strengthen for USD/CNY to rise back to 7.10.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Recommended Articles
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts higher above $4,200 as Fed delivers expected cutGold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,235 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends its upside after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered an expected third consecutive interest rate cut and maintained its outlook for just one cut in 2026.
Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,235 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends its upside after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered an expected third consecutive interest rate cut and maintained its outlook for just one cut in 2026.
Ethereum Price Slips Lower — $3,000 Looms as the Key BattlegroundEthereum is attempting to recover from a $3,026 low but remains below $3,200 and the 100-hour SMA, with a bearish trend line near $3,175 capping rebounds as bulls need a clean break above $3,200 to target $3,250–$3,400, while a drop below $3,050 risks a retest of $3,000 and $2,940.
Ethereum is attempting to recover from a $3,026 low but remains below $3,200 and the 100-hour SMA, with a bearish trend line near $3,175 capping rebounds as bulls need a clean break above $3,200 to target $3,250–$3,400, while a drop below $3,050 risks a retest of $3,000 and $2,940.
Analysts predict Bitcoin may face further declines towards the $70,000 mark if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates as expected.
Bitcoin Slides 5% as Sellers Lean In — Can BTC Reclaim $88,000?Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average.
The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000.
Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal.
Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000（h3）
BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500.
The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet.
Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot:
It’s trading below $88,000, and
It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward.
Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area（h3）
If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession.
First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim.
A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle.
If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased.
If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear（h3）
The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower.
Support levels line up like this:
Immediate support: $85,500
First major support: $85,000
Next support: $83,500
Then $82,500 in the near term
Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking.
Indicators: momentum still leans bearish（h3）
The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet:
Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes.
So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
Bitcoin has dropped back below $88,000 after rolling over from $90,500, with price still trading under the 100-hour Simple Moving Average.
The sell-off found a floor at $85,151, and BTC is now consolidating near that base, but rebounds are facing pressure from a bearish trend line around $89,000.
Bulls need to retake $88,000–$89,000 to ease downside risk; failure to do so keeps $85,500–$85,000 and then $83,500 in play, with $80,000 as the deeper “line in the sand.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is back in damage-control mode after a sharp pullback wiped out recent gains. The price failed to reclaim the $90,000–$90,500 band, rolled over, and slid through $88,500 before briefly dipping under $87,000. Buyers did show up around $85,000, but the rebound so far looks more like stabilization than a clear trend reversal.
Bitcoin dips hard, finds a bid near $85,000（h3）
BTC’s latest move lower began when it couldn’t build follow-through above $90,000 and $90,500. Once that upside stalled, sellers took control and pushed price down through $88,500.
The slide accelerated enough to spike below $87,000, but the market didn’t free-fall. Bulls defended the $85,000 zone, printing a low at $85,151. Since then, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low — a clue that the bounce is still shallow and that sellers haven’t fully backed off yet.
Structurally, BTC is still on the back foot:
It’s trading below $88,000, and
It remains below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average, keeping short-term trend pressure pointed downward.
Resistance is layered, and $89,000 is the problem area（h3）
If bulls try to turn this into a recovery, they’ll have to climb through multiple ceilings in quick succession.
First, BTC faces resistance around $87,150, followed by a more meaningful barrier near $87,500. From there, the market’s attention snaps back to $88,000 — the level BTC just lost and now needs to reclaim.
A close back above $88,000 would improve the tone, but it doesn’t solve the bigger issue: there’s a bearish trend line on the hourly BTC/USD chart (Kraken feed) with resistance near $89,000, which also lines up with the next technical hurdle.
If BTC can push through $89,000 and hold, the rebound could extend toward $90,000, with follow-through targets at $91,000 and $91,500. But until price clears that $88,000–$89,000 zone, rallies are at risk of being sold rather than chased.
If BTC fails to reclaim resistance, the downside path is clear（h3）
The near-term bear case is simple: if Bitcoin can’t climb back above the $87,000 area and keep traction, sellers may attempt another leg lower.
Support levels line up like this:
Immediate support: $85,500
First major support: $85,000
Next support: $83,500
Then $82,500 in the near term
Below that, the major “don’t break this” level is still $80,000. If BTC slips under $80,000, the risk of acceleration to the downside increases significantly — not because it’s magic, but because it’s the kind of psychological and structural level that tends to trigger forced de-risking.
Indicators: momentum still leans bearish（h3）
The intraday indicators aren’t offering much comfort yet:
Hourly MACD is losing pace in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI remains below 50, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand on short timeframes.
So while the $85,000 defense held for now, the market hasn’t flipped bullish — it’s just stopped bleeding.
The Senate Banking Committee has postponed cryptocurrency market structure hearings until 2026, citing ongoing bipartisan negotiations.
