AUD: Made in China – Commerzbank

Since July 12, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has lost almost 3.5% against the US Dollar (USD), making it one of the weaker G-10 currencies over that period. Two things have probably contributed to this. Both are related and both have a direct impact on Australia. But their origins lie elsewhere, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

AUD is facing headwinds from China

“In fact, the only significant new information on the Australian economy over the past two weeks has been the labor market data – and that should have supported the Aussie dollar. After all, the Australian economy is still creating significantly more jobs per month than before the pandemic, so the labor market remains tight and wage growth should remain high.”

“On the other hand, the AUD is facing headwinds from China. Weak economic data, plus a relatively disappointing Third Plenum and so far no further stimulus announcements after the expected July Politburo meeting. The Chinese economy is now expected to be weaker than it was a few weeks ago, and the impact is being felt in the industrial metals market in particular.”

“This may be the deciding factor for the AUD in the coming days. Not only will Australian inflation data be released early on Wednesday, which will likely be crucial for the Reserve Bank of Australia's next move. But also new purchasing manager indices from China. Inflation is likely to support the Aussie again. On the other hand, the PMI's from China are due. A sideways movement or a renewed weakening could overshadow the impact of Australian inflation.”