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NZD/USD bounces back from 0.6050 in countdown to NZ Q2 Inflation

Source Fxstreet

NZD/USD recovers some intraday losses as the US Dollar remains under pressure due to firm Fed rate-cut bets.
Fed Powell recognized the need for more soft inflation data before pivoting to policy normalization.
NZ Q2 inflation is estimated to have grown steadily by 0.6%.

The NZD/USD pair rebound strongly after discovering buying support near two-month low around 0.6050 in Tuesday’s European session. The Kiwi asset recovers as the US Dollar (USD) remains on the backfoot due to firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting its key interest rates from the September meeting.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, struggles to hold its immediate support of 104.00. Meanwhile, investors’ higher risk appetite due to increasing Fed rate-cut prospects has underpinned risk-sensitive assets. S&P 500 futures have posted some losses in European trading hours.

Signs of improving Fed officials’ confidence in the progress in disinflation have boosted expectations for Fed rate cuts in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his speech at the Economic Club of Washington on Monday, "We've had three better readings, and if you average them, that's a pretty good place," Reuters reported.

Separately, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said, “confidence is growing” that inflation is heading towards 2% target. However, she denied providing a guidance on timeframe for rate cuts.

On the economic front, investors await the United States (US) Retail Sales data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The report is expected to show that monthly Retail Sales remained stagnant after a meager growth of 0.1% in May.

In the New Zealand region, investors await the Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will provide cues about when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will start reducing interest rates. NZ inflation is estimated to have grown at a steady pace of 0.6%. Annually, price pressures are expected to have decelerated to 3.5% from the former release of 4.0%.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (QoQ)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by Statistics New Zealand on a quarterly basis, measures changes in the price of goods and services bought by New Zealand households. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The QoQ reading compares prices in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. A high reading is seen as bullish for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) inflation target being around the midpoint of 2%, Statistics New Zealand’s quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) publication is of high significance. The trend in consumer prices tends to influence RBNZ’s interest rates decision, which in turn, heavily impacts the NZD valuation. Acceleration in inflation could lead to faster tightening of the rates by the RBNZ and vice-versa. Actual figures beating forecasts render NZD bullish.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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