USD/CHF remains on the defensive below 0.8850 as weaker US Retail Sales data boosts Fed rate cuts bet

Source Fxstreet
  • USD/CHF posts modest gains near 0.8840 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
  • The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to keep its interest rate steady at 1.5% in the June meeting on Thursday. 
  • The US Retail Sales were weaker than expected, rising 0.1% MoM in May.

The USD/CHF pair trades with mild gains near three-month lows around 0.8840 during the early European session on Wednesday. The modest rebound of the pair might be limited as traders raised their bets on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut this year. US markets will be closed on Wednesday due to Juneteenth National Independence Day. Investors await the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Interest Rate Decision on Thursday, with no change in rate expected. 

The Swiss central bank is anticipated to keep its interest rate on hold at 1.5% as the nation's inflation remains elevated for the second consecutive month in May. Ahead of the policy meeting, investors have priced in nearly 60% odds of an SNB rate cut, down from 97% in April, according to Bloomberg. However, economists are roughly split on the decision. ”We expect the policy rate to be cut by 25bp to 1.25% at this upcoming meeting ... it is our base case because inflation is within the target range, it is expected to remain there, and the SNB thinks the policy is currently restrictive," said Nomura European economist George Moran.

On the other hand, the weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales report on Tuesday has triggered speculation that the Fed will start to cut interest rates in a few months, which drag the Greenback lower against its rivals. The US Retail Sales rose 0.1% on a monthly in May following a decline of 0.2% in April, below the consensus of a 0.2% increase, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.

USD/CHF

Overview
Today last price 0.8842
Today Daily Change 0.0000
Today Daily Change % 0.00
Today daily open 0.8842
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.9001
Daily SMA50 0.9063
Daily SMA100 0.8959
Daily SMA200 0.8893
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.89
Previous Daily Low 0.8827
Previous Weekly High 0.8993
Previous Weekly Low 0.8893
Previous Monthly High 0.9225
Previous Monthly Low 0.8988
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.8855
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.8872
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.8813
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.8783
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.8739
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.8886
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.893
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.8959

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Strong profits, falling shares: bank earnings day one meets a memory-chip rout — with CPI and ASML aheadGoldman Sachs blew past estimates (EPS $17.01 vs $13.09 expected, profit +33%) while JPMorgan missed ($5.75 vs $5.93) and Wells Fargo fell 3% — yet the S&P 500 finished flat at 7,805.45, pinned below its record close as a memory-chip rout (SOX −2.67%, Micron under $1,000) kept the pressure on. Tonight brings the week's decider: US September CPI at 8:30 ET, then Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and ASML before the open. Here are the levels, both cases, and the watch list.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 14, Wed
Goldman Sachs blew past estimates (EPS $17.01 vs $13.09 expected, profit +33%) while JPMorgan missed ($5.75 vs $5.93) and Wells Fargo fell 3% — yet the S&P 500 finished flat at 7,805.45, pinned below its record close as a memory-chip rout (SOX −2.67%, Micron under $1,000) kept the pressure on. Tonight brings the week's decider: US September CPI at 8:30 ET, then Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and ASML before the open. Here are the levels, both cases, and the watch list.
placeholder
US September CPI recap: inflation hits 3.7% as core runs hot — is an October Fed hike back on the table?September CPI landed hot: headline 3.7% y/y, core 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m. October hike odds jumped from ~22% to ~37% — yet the dollar faded to 101.74, gold closed higher and the S&P 500 fell 1.11%. Here is the full repricing, the levels and what to watch next.
Author  Irene Q.
23 hours ago
September CPI landed hot: headline 3.7% y/y, core 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m. October hike odds jumped from ~22% to ~37% — yet the dollar faded to 101.74, gold closed higher and the S&P 500 fell 1.11%. Here is the full repricing, the levels and what to watch next.
placeholder
Gold defends $4,100 as BofA targets a break below $4,000 — why the Middle East bid is missingSpot gold flushed to $4,099.89, a whisker above October's $4,090 low, then rebounded to close at $4,138.25 (+0.82%) — even as US CPI ran hot. Bank of America sees gold below $4,000 within three months, citing shrinking demand and official-sector selling. Here are the levels, the drivers and what would flip the script.
Author  Irene Q.
22 hours ago
Spot gold flushed to $4,099.89, a whisker above October's $4,090 low, then rebounded to close at $4,138.25 (+0.82%) — even as US CPI ran hot. Bank of America sees gold below $4,000 within three months, citing shrinking demand and official-sector selling. Here are the levels, the drivers and what would flip the script.
placeholder
Gold Price Analysis Today | Forex Gold Analysis | XAU/USD Analysis - October 15, 2026Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 15, 2026. Read on for the details.
Author  Mitrade
22 hours ago
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 15, 2026. Read on for the details.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote