GBP/USD clears some gains after Fed's decision and Dot Plot revision

Source Fxstreet
  • The Fed held rates steady at 5.25%-5.50% as expected.
  • The dot plot indicated that most of the FOMC members are seeing fewer rate cuts this year.
  • As an initial reaction, the USD recovered and the pair cleared some of its daily losses.

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD cleared some of its gains following the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to hold rates steady at 5.25%-5.50% and stands at 1.2830. What strengthened the USD is that the Dot Plot suggested that the members are seeing two instead of three rate cuts in 2024.

Regarding economic protections, the bank revised its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) forecasts to 2.4% YoY from 2.6% YoY, while growth protections remain unchanged. The interest protections, via the so-called Dot Plot,  showed an upward revision of the interest rates by the end of 2024 now at 5.1%, up from 4.6%, and for the 2025 at 4.1%, up from 3.9%. The proyection for 2026 stood at 3.1%, and the longer-run rate has been revised to 2.8% from 2.6%. 

As a reaction, the USD recovered some ground following the soft Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures from May which triggered a sharp decline in US Treasury bond yields earlier in the session. The US 2,5 and 10 rates cleared some losses but are still down by more than 2%.

GBP/USD Technical analysis

Indicators on the daily chart significantly recovered and remain deep in positive terrain. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved towards 60 while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints decreasing red bars, indicating a decreasing selling pressure. The overall outlook remains positive as the pair rides above the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA).

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.2839
Today Daily Change 0.0099
Today Daily Change % 0.78
Today daily open 1.274
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.2734
Daily SMA50 1.2606
Daily SMA100 1.2639
Daily SMA200 1.2547
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.2752
Previous Daily Low 1.2706
Previous Weekly High 1.2818
Previous Weekly Low 1.2695
Previous Monthly High 1.2801
Previous Monthly Low 1.2446
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2734
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2723
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2713
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2687
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2668
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2759
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2778
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2805

 

 

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
The Fed will sit still on October 28 — but 100 of 100 economists now expect a December hikeA Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 22, Thu
A Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
placeholder
Nasdaq closes at 26,008.86 — 8.9 points above 26,000, and the credit market never blinkedThe Nasdaq Composite fell 2.60% to 26,008.86 on October 22, its worst session since June, as Meta sank 6.98% on 2026 capex guidance of $135–145 billion. But the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 0.73%, high-yield credit was flat and 10-year yields fell 20 basis points. This was an AI de-rating, not a risk-off event — here is the transmission chain, the 29,000 / 28,200 levels and what would prove it wrong.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 23, Fri
The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.60% to 26,008.86 on October 22, its worst session since June, as Meta sank 6.98% on 2026 capex guidance of $135–145 billion. But the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 0.73%, high-yield credit was flat and 10-year yields fell 20 basis points. This was an AI de-rating, not a risk-off event — here is the transmission chain, the 29,000 / 28,200 levels and what would prove it wrong.
placeholder
Brent tops $113 on Saudi supply risk — but the diesel line in the EIA report is the tellBrent's December contract settled at $113.17 on October 22, up 4.00% and the highest close since May 4, after Saudi Arabia restricted refined-product shipments. The same session's EIA report showed crude stocks down 3.06 million barrels and gasoline down 2.95 million — but distillates built 1.68 million. That single line decides whether $113 holds: here are the data, the 108.8 / 114.0 / 119.3 levels and the two scenarios.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 23, Fri
Brent's December contract settled at $113.17 on October 22, up 4.00% and the highest close since May 4, after Saudi Arabia restricted refined-product shipments. The same session's EIA report showed crude stocks down 3.06 million barrels and gasoline down 2.95 million — but distillates built 1.68 million. That single line decides whether $113 holds: here are the data, the 108.8 / 114.0 / 119.3 levels and the two scenarios.
placeholder
Gold Price Analysis Today | Forex Gold Analysis | XAU/USD Analysis - October 26, 2026Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 26, 2026. Read on for the details.
Author  Mitrade
9 hours ago
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 26, 2026. Read on for the details.
placeholder
Gold breaks $4,000 as oil becomes the inflation problem — $3,943 is the line that mattersSpot gold closed at $3,995.6 on October 23, down about 4.1% for the week and at its lowest since mid-July, and traded near $3,988 on October 26 even as Brent crude settled at $116.72 and Middle East supply risk stayed elevated. The war premium stopped working because oil is now the inflation trade: December Fed hike odds are 68.9% and the 10-year yield is 4.988%. Here are the three numbers, the transmission chain, and the July low at $3,943 that decides whether this is a bottom or a bigger correction.
Author  Irene Q.
4 hours ago
Spot gold closed at $3,995.6 on October 23, down about 4.1% for the week and at its lowest since mid-July, and traded near $3,988 on October 26 even as Brent crude settled at $116.72 and Middle East supply risk stayed elevated. The war premium stopped working because oil is now the inflation trade: December Fed hike odds are 68.9% and the 10-year yield is 4.988%. Here are the three numbers, the transmission chain, and the July low at $3,943 that decides whether this is a bottom or a bigger correction.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote