USD/CAD declines to 1.3650 as US Dollar retreats with US core PCE Inflation in focus
Source Fxstreet
- USD/CAD falls further to 1.3650 as the US Dollar falls back ahead of the US core PCE Price Index.
- Downwardly revised US Q1 GDP growth has kept hopes of the Fed cutting interest rates at least once this year alive.
- The Canadian economy is forecasted to have remained stagnant in March.
The USD/CAD pair extends its downside to 1.3650 in Friday’s European session. The Loonie asset comes under pressure as the US Dollar struggles to gain ground despite uncertainty ahead of the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for April, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
Economists expect that the core PCE inflation rose steadily by 0.3% and 2.8% on a monthly and an annual basis, respectively. Hot or expected inflation reading would weaken the case of Federal Reserve (Fed) lowering interest rates from the September meeting. The scenario would be favorable for the US Dollar and bond yields. While soft numbers will do the opposite.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is subdued around 104.75. The USD Index came under pressure after downwardly revised Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate boosts hopes that the Fed will reduce interest rates at least once this year. US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy expanded at a slower pace of 1.3% due to lower consumer spendings from the preliminary estimates of 1.6%.
Meanwhile, the market sentiment is broadly risk-averse as China’s weak Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI data has raised concerns over global economic prospects. S&P 500 futures have posted some losses in the European session.
In the neighbour nation, the Canadian Dollar will dance to the tunes of the monthly and Q1 GDP data, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The Canadian economy is projected to have remained stagnant in March after expanding 0.2% in February. Weak GDP data would boost expectations for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to begin reducing interest rates from the June meeting.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin briefly loses 2025 gains as crypto plunges over the weekend.Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
