EUR/JPY bounces back from 170.00 with German Inflation in focus

• EUR/JPY rebounds after a steep fall that was influenced by BoJ Adach’s support for a reduction in BoJ’s bond-buying.
• The uncertainty over BoJ’s wage growth outlook has limited the scope of further policy tightening.
• German inflation data will impact market speculation for ECB rate cuts beyond June.

The EUR/JPY recovers the dip to near 170.20 that was influenced by Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Seiji Adachi’s commentary on the monetary policy outlook. BoJ Adachi advocated for reducing bond buying in several stages so that long-term yields better serve as a market signal. However, Adachi didn't provide any timeline for the same.

Over the interest rate outlook, Adachi commented that it would be appropriate to adjust interest rates at a slow pace if underlying inflation steadily moves toward 2%. Adachi’s dovish commentary on the interest rate outlook has deepened uncertainty about the BoJ extending the policy-tightening.

Market participants believe that inflationary pressures in Japan are driven by weak Japanese Yen while a move to higher interest rates should be backed by confidence in prolong wage growth that prompts consumer spendings and boosts price index.

This week, the Japanese Yen will be guided by the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May and the Retail Trade data for April, which will be published on Friday.

Meanwhile, the Euro is under pressure ahead of the preliminary German CPI data for May, which will be published at 12:00 GMT. Economists expect that the annual Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) accelerated to 2.7% from the prior reading of 2.4%, with the monthly headline and harmonized inflation data grew at a slower pace of 0.2%.

The German inflation will significantly influence market speculation for European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts. The ECB is widely anticipated to start reducing interest rates from the June meeting. Therefore, the impact of the German inflation will majorly on the ECB rate-cut path beyond June.